On June 27, amendments to the Churches and Congregations Act finally entered into force, prohibiting religious associations in Estonia from being affiliated with a religious leader based in a foreign country that poses a threat to Estonia's national security.

Tarmo Miilits, secretary general of the Ministry of the Interior, has now sent a letter to all religious associations informing them that they have six months, until December 28, to bring their activities into compliance with the new requirements. Otherwise, the minister of the interior may initiate proceedings to forcibly dissolve the religious association.

Although the letter was sent to all religious associations, the main question is what will happen to the Estonian Christian Orthodox Church, which is affiliated with the Moscow Patriarchate and was formerly known as the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate.

Bishop Daniel of the Orthodox Church responded briefly in writing, saying that over the next six months the church plans to gain clarity on how the new law will be implemented and then decide how to organize church life going forward.

Ilmo Au, an adviser at the Ministry of the Interior, said the church must first appoint a new metropolitan, since no cleric or member of the church's governing board may be a person whose residence permit was not extended on national security grounds in the last 10 years.

The church's leader, Metropolitan Eugene, whose given name is Valeri Reshetnikov, was required to leave Estonia at the beginning of 2024 after the Estonian Internal Security Service (ISS) concluded that his activities posed a threat to Estonia's national security.

"Under the provision of the law that has already entered into force, he should no longer serve as a cleric. And yes, he must also be removed from the governing board within the next six months," Au said.

Potentially even more difficult for the Orthodox Church, however, will be removing references to the Moscow Patriarchate from its governing documents.

Under the church's current rules, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia must approve with his signature all decisions made by the general assembly of the Estonian Christian Orthodox Church, including the annual report, the budget and the election of members of the church administration.

Au said severing those ties would be emotionally difficult for the church, but not impossible.

"The Orthodox clergy here must engage in serious introspection and clearly determine whom they serve: the Triune God or the Kremlin and the Patriarch of Moscow," he said.

Assistant professor: Completely severing ties with Moscow remains questionable

Tartu University Associate Professor of Church History Priit Rohtmets said he believes the Estonian Christian Orthodox Church will likely try to reduce the Moscow Patriarchate's influence in its statutes, but whether it can do so completely remains questionable.

"I would say that over the next six months we will see whether the church is willing to undertake this process or even sees a way to do so, or whether it instead concludes that it has no future in Estonia because all decisions must come from Moscow, as it has consistently maintained until now," he said.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that, in addition to its statutes, the Estonian Christian Orthodox Church is governed by a 1993 tomos issued by Patriarch Alexy II.

A tomos is effectively the church's founding document. It sets out the independent rights of the Estonian Christian Orthodox Church and defines its place within the hierarchy of the Moscow Patriarchate.

It is the tomos that states, for example, that decisions of the church's highest governing body, the general assembly, must be approved by the patriarch. It also stipulates that the head of the Estonian church, the metropolitan, is nominated and confirmed by the Patriarch of Moscow.

Rohtmets said the church may be able to remove references to its subordination to the Moscow Patriarchate from its statutes, but it is unlikely to want to remove references to the tomos as its founding document.

"My prediction is that the Estonian Christian Orthodox Church will probably try to make some changes to its statutes while at the same time seeking to preserve the tomos as the foundation of the church's governance," Rohtmets said.

New court battle on the horizon

Rohtmets said the entire process will inevitably lead to new legal disputes this winter, with the courts having to decide whether the church in Estonia has in fact severed its ties with the Russian Orthodox Church. In other words, the court will have to determine whether there are grounds to forcibly dissolve the church.

The associate professor noted that in Ukraine, the same issue has already been the subject of court proceedings for more than a year.

"The Ukrainian Orthodox Church similarly changed its name and made the same kinds of amendments to its statutes that are now expected of the Estonian Christian Orthodox Church. However, the same tomos remained in force," Rohtmets said.

Ukraine is now also debating whether ties with Moscow have truly been severed if that same founding document remains in effect.

"The government body responsible for the issue has brought the matter before the courts to determine whether a link still exists between the Russian Orthodox Church and the local Ukrainian Orthodox Church that is subordinate to Moscow," he said.

Moscow need not be asked

A separate question is whether, even if the Estonian Christian Orthodox Church wanted to sever its ties with Moscow, Moscow would agree. Rohtmets said that is unlikely.

"It is probably unlikely that the Russian Orthodox Church would be willing to let the Estonian Christian Orthodox Church go. Even if, from the perspective of the church here, such a move would be justified and well founded, Moscow likely still has an interest in preserving the existing church structure and, with it, its influence over the church in Estonia," Rohtmets said.

Under the Churches and Congregations Act, however, the church no longer faces any legal obstacles to severing its ties with Moscow, as it is no longer required to seek Moscow's approval.

"The church no longer needs the participation of a foreign individual or governing body to make such a decision, so it can make its own decisions. It no longer has to ask Moscow for permission," the Ministry of the Interior adviser explained.

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