Virtually all oil refineries in central Russia have been hit in one way or another — either completely shut down or operating below capacity. Has this begun to affect the Russian economy, or is it expected to have some impact?

It definitely has an impact, but not to such an extent that it would force Russia to change its strategic objectives in the coming months. Putin recently visited China, and he clearly has China's support. He also has support from a number of other countries, which provides 'oxygen' to his economy and allows him to continue the war.

Naturally, he is also counting on playing on Europe's nerves, or rather presenting a kind of deceptive scenario suggesting that peace negotiations might soon be possible.

The battlefield shows no signs whatsoever that the conditions exist for negotiations with Russia, because the only way to talk to Russia is when it is forced to acknowledge and understand that it cannot achieve its goals through aggression.

In a situation where the war drags on for years and they don't achieve the success they want, Russia may be tempted to use nuclear weapons. Do you feel this is becoming an issue?

I don't. I don't think Russia is currently considering going that far, either in thought or in action. However, it certainly likes to use such threats to intimidate, primarily Western countries. It has done so throughout the war. Let's recall the autumn of 2022, which was a very decisive moment, when Ukrainians truly had the chance to tilt the war quickly in their favor.

At present, one can expect escalation in the sense that Russia will likely employ greater firepower in the form of missile and drone strikes, primarily against Kyiv, as we saw two days ago, but probably also against other Ukrainian cities. In that sense, Russia's current behavior certainly shows no signs that it is ready to make any concessions in the war.

Europe is currently looking for a European spokesperson. If such a person were to start talking with Russia — assuming it has lost or the war has ended — they likely wouldn't be talking to Putin at all. What should the person who is being selected prepare for?

I don't think such a mission is actually underway right now.

But they are searching.

That's more of a media-driven, intriguing topic. What matters is that in the coming days there will be an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in Cyprus, where, at Kaja Kallas's initiative, they will discuss the conditions the European Union should present to Russia in the event that, theoretically, an opportunity arises to engage in talks. It is unequivocally clear that Europe cannot, under any circumstances, accept a situation where Russia gains de jure control over occupied and illegally annexed territories, or achieves its objectives through aggression.

There is also news that the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, and Canada rejected a proposal that NATO allies allocate 0.25% of GDP to aid Ukraine. Was that perhaps too much to ask?

I would say definitely not. Countries may have different attitudes toward fixed targets, especially those tied to GDP and obligations. For large economies, even 0.25% amounts to tens of billions of euros. On the other hand, this shows that many key European countries still lack the firm political will to bring about a decisive turning point in this war that would help Ukraine succeed and win.

Perhaps those same countries ultimately want a spokesperson to emerge and reach some kind of agreement — they don't think like Estonians, who believe Russia must clearly lose and might end up keeping some territory?

Estonians are certainly not alone. In fact, many understand in private discussions that this war will not end with kind words. It will end on the battlefield with one side gaining the upper hand, which will then lead to negotiations that formalize a new reality. For us — and I believe for Ukrainians as well — the only acceptable new reality is a just and lasting peace, meaning that Ukraine preserves its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

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