Putin may lose leverage in Ukraine talks, says Estonian intellegence chief

Russian President Vladimir Putin may lose leverage in peace negotiations with Ukraine in the coming months if current battlefield trends continue, Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA), told the U.S. publication CNN.
Putin is running out of time to win his war against Ukraine, amid a stalemate on the battlefield and growing troubles at home, he told the outlet in a video interview.
In the next four or five months, the Russian leader "may not be able to negotiate from a position of strength anymore," Rosin said. "Time is not in Russia's favor," he added.
The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service also said Moscow's messaging appears to have changed.
"I do not hear any more talk about total victory. People (in the Kremlin) recognize that the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield is not going too well," Rosin said, adding that Moscow is losing more men than it can recruit.
Ukrainian and U.S. estimates put the number of Russian casualties between 15,000 and 35,000 a month.
He told CNN the Kremlin is unlikely to carry out a mass mobilization as it does not want to risk upsetting the population.
"If the Russians were able to mobilize another couple of hundred thousand more people to the battlefield, that would be a problem (for Ukraine)," Rosin said. But such a move "would create additional internal stability risks" for the Kremlin, he added.
"They (the Kremlin) are very concerned about internal stability, monitoring it very carefully… This is not the decision they would make very easily."
Rosin said Russia will try and make next winter equally as difficult for Ukraine as the one just passed.
He also does not believe Russians will take to the streets in protest as the economic situation in their country worsens.
"I really do not see a street revolution at this point, but sometimes such systems are very hollow inside, and if something happens, it will happen very rapidly, and we all will be surprised," he said.
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Editor: Helen Wright









