Russian information attacks against the Baltic states, as well as Finland and Poland, have increased recently, Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) said.

Russia claims Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are allowing Ukraine to use its airspace for drone attacks against Russian oil infrastructure on the Baltic coast. This has been denied by all three countries.

"Not only in the media, but also through diplomatic channels on Russia's part – they want to show that, look, the Baltic states are dragging NATO into a war against Russia. But this is yet another attempt to create confusion," Tsahkna said.

Representatives of the Embassies of , and in Moscow made a joint demarche at the Russian MFA, strongly rejecting Russia's false statements about the Baltic States https://t.co/yFtee87JUj

— Estonian MFA | #StandWithUkraine (@MFAestonia) July 10, 2026

Security expert Meelis Oidsalu, former deputy secretary general of the Ministry of Defense (2015-2021) said the timing and intensity coincide with Latvia's election this autumn and Estonia's next spring.

"Latvia and Estonia, which are probably the NATO countries with the largest Russian populations proportionally, have parliamentary elections coming up. Quite predictably, attempts are then made to choose targets according to the election cycle as well. There are many contentious issues between Estonia and Russia, including the issue of the Russian Orthodox Church," Oidsalu said.

The security expert said Russia may also try to stir up distrust among Estonians who have become alienated from the government.

Security expert Rainer Saks, former secretary general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2015-2020, added that the information war is being intensified by Russia's difficult situation in the war.

He added that Russia is seeking to deter not only the Baltic states but the whole of Europe, with two objectives.

"To make relations between Europe and the US as bad as possible, and secondly, to ensure that there is as little consensus as possible within Europe on supporting Ukraine, in order to disrupt the process of supporting Ukraine. At the moment, I do not see a threat of military aggression from Russia against either the Baltic states or Europe more broadly," Saks said.

The foreign minister said that Putin does not have the capability to start a war: "But provocations may come onto the agenda; that's the usual story."

However, Oidsalu said headlines can still be generated by provocations:"They are probably still looking for moves like that. But we have been so hardened by last year that there is not much that can surprise our security services anymore."

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