Norstat poll has Isamaa extending lead over Center Party

A fresh poll by NGO Institute of Societal Studies and research firm Norstat Eesti shows that Isamaa has widened its lead over its closest rival, Center Party.
According to the latest results, Isamaa is supported by 26.6 percent of eligible voters, followed by Center Party at 21.5 percent and the Social Democratic Party at 14.5 percent.
Support for front-runner Isamaa has risen slightly compared with last week, while support for the second-place Center Party has fallen. As a result, Isamaa's lead over the Center Party has widened to 5.1 percentage points, according to Norstat.
The Social Democratic Party is in third place, trailing the Center Party by seven percentage points.
The top three are followed by Conservative People's Party of Estonia (13.6 percent), Reform Party (12 percent), Parempoolsed (5.9 percent) and Eesti 200 (1.5 percent).
The governing coalition parties collectively are supported by 13.5 percent of respondents, while parliamentary opposition parties are backed by 76.2 percent.
The latest aggregate results reflect polling conducted between April 20 and May 17, during which 4,000 voting-age Estonian citizens were surveyed.

In presenting the results, Institute of Societal Studies and Norstat Eesti AS focused on the aggregate results from the past four weeks, meaning the sample included at least 4,000 respondents. Voters without a party preference were excluded when calculating the parties' relative levels of support.
The maximum margin of error depends on the size of the largest group. In this poll, the largest group consisted of Isamaa supporters, giving a margin of error of plus or minus 1.62 percentage points. The margin of error for other parties is smaller — for example, plus or minus 0.45 percentage points for Eesti 200. Calculating party support percentages this way smooths out fluctuations seen in individual polls caused by larger statistical errors and short-term events.
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Editor: Mirjam Mäekivi, Marcus Turovski









