Because the period in question — 1992 to 2026 — is so long and different polling firms have used different questions and scales to measure presidential support, making exact comparisons is impossible. Results have also been influenced by whether a president served one or two terms in office, as well as by how they carried out their presidency.

A few points

By default, the president of the republic is elected in the Riigikogu where candidates can be nominated by a minimum of 21 MPs. A candidate needs 68 votes to be elected in the parliament. If the parliament fails to elect the president after three rounds of voting (in the third round, voting is between the two candidates who received the most votes in the second), the election moves into the Electoral College made up of MPs and local government electors. As of the beginning of 2026, the electoral body consists of 208 members (including 101 members of the Riigikogu).

For the first round of voting, the two candidates that participated in the third round of voting at the Riigikogu are automatically presented to the electoral body. Additionally, at least 21 members of the Electoral College may nominate a new candidate. A majority of the voting Electoral College members is required in order for a candidate to be elected.

If no candidate is elected in the first round, there will be a second round of voting between the two candidates who received the greatest number of votes in the first round. Again, a majority of the votes is required in order for a candidate to be elected.

If no candidate is elected, the whole procedure starts all over again, starting from the Riigikogu.

Lennart Meri began his first presidential term with the lowest approval rating of any Estonian president — just 32 percent — but by his third year in office, support had risen to 72 percent. During his second term, however, Meri's approval declined somewhat.

Arnold Rüütel enjoyed stronger support among middle-aged and older voters, with little variation between ethnic groups. His approval remained high until the end of his term when alternative candidates emerged.

Toomas Hendrik Ilves drew more support from younger voters than Rüütel did and his supporters were more likely to be highly educated. There was also a large gap between ethnic Estonians and other ethnic groups, with support among the latter several times lower. As with Meri, Ilves' approval declined during his second term.

Kersti Kaljulaid had the highest level of trust among people under 35, especially those younger than 24. Trust in her also showed a wide divide between ethnic Estonians and other ethnic groups, a pattern that remained unchanged throughout her term.

Alar Karis, like Rüütel, is trusted more by older residents, though the differences between younger and older age groups are smaller than in the case of Kaljulaid and Ilves, helping ensure broader trust across the population. A slight decline in support for Karis among ethnic Estonians has been offset by growing support among other ethnic groups, resulting in relatively stable approval throughout his term.

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Lennart Meri elected president

To understand Lennart Meri's popularity curve, it is important to look at the background to how he became president. The 1992 presidential election differed from all subsequent ones because the president was elected by popular vote. In that vote, Arnold Rüütel received the most support, with 41.8 percent. Meri won 29.5 percent, narrowly ahead of Rein Taagepera, who received 23.4 percent.

However, since no candidate secured more than half of the votes cast, no one was elected outright. Under the presidential election law, the decision then passed to the Riigikogu, with only the two leading candidates — Rüütel and Meri — appearing on the ballot.

As the Isamaa party had come to power in the September 1992 parliamentary elections and Meri had been its presidential candidate, it was no surprise that he received more votes than Rüütel in parliament. Meri received 59 votes to Rüütel's 31, while 11 ballots were invalid and on October 5 he was elected the first president of re-independent Estonia.

Meri's support low out of the gate

Just one month later, in November 1992, pollster Emor asked respondents how well Lennart Meri had handled his duties as president. Only 32 percent said Meri had performed well as president. Nearly the same share — 31 percent — believed he had performed poorly. The remaining third had no opinion.

Such low support at the beginning of his presidency was logical and largely explained by the fact that Arnold Rüütel had been the most popular candidate in the preceding popular vote.

Meri's support, however, did not remain that low. A year later, in December 1993, 58 percent rated his work as president positively. The share of respondents with a negative view remained largely unchanged at 34 percent.

The upward trend continued and by March 1995 — when parliamentary elections were also held — as many as 72 percent assessed Meri's performance positively. Perhaps more importantly, the number of respondents with a critical view had fallen by half, to 18 percent.

In the final poll of Meri's first term, conducted in March 1996, assessments of his performance as president were slightly lower, though still more than twice as high as at the start of his presidency. Some 69 percent said Meri had done a good job as president.

Approval heads down during second term

For Lennart Meri's second term in office (1996–2001), Emor surveys from the final three years are available for comparison. During that period, respondents were asked to rate support for the president on a 10-point scale, where ratings of 1–3 indicated opposition and 8–10 indicated support.

In a survey using that methodology, Meri's support rating — defined as responses of 8–10 — stood at 54 percent in March 1999. The share of respondents who did not support him, giving ratings of 1–3, was 10 percent.

Surveys using the same methodology were conducted regularly through the end of Meri's second term.

In March 2000, support stood at 52 percent, but by October of the same year it had dropped to just 30 percent. At the same time, however, the share of critics remained low, at only 17 percent.

In the final survey, conducted in September 2001, the share of supporters was 51 percent.

Rüütel starts with soaring approval

In 2001, Arnold Rüütel was elected president of Estonia after unsuccessful voting rounds in the Riigikogu. He was ultimately elected by the Electoral College, receiving 186 votes in the second round between the two leading candidates, while Toomas Savi received 155.

In a survey conducted immediately after the presidential election, 74 percent of respondents supported Rüütel ("fully support" plus "rather support"), while 18 percent did not support the new president.

During Rüütel's presidency, Emor measured support for leading politicians using the median score on a 10-point scale, where 1 meant "do not support at all" and 10 meant "fully support." Rüütel's rating remained relatively stable at around 7 points. For context, other politicians only rarely reached scores of 5–6.

In the final year of his term, at the beginning of 2006, support for Rüütel remained strong, though it had declined slightly compared with the start of his presidency. Some 61 percent of residents supported him continuing as president. At that point, however, rival candidates had not yet emerged.

Another interesting shift appeared within Rüütel's support base. At the start of his term, his support was strongest among rural residents, but by the end of his presidency it was highest among residents of medium-sized towns and small cities, at 74 percent. Among rural residents, 64 percent supported Rüütel remaining president, while support in Tallinn and larger cities — Tartu, Pärnu, Narva and Kohtla-Järve — remained below 60 percent.

The situation changed in May 2006. Only 36 percent of residents then believed Rüütel should run for president again. The shift was driven by the emergence of alternative presidential candidates. At the same time, support for Rüütel among non-Estonians became significantly stronger.

From that point onward, surveys asking respondents to choose between Rüütel and another candidate clearly showed declining support for him. Compared with presidential candidate Ene Ergma, support levels were fairly even, but backing for Toomas Hendrik Ilves was significantly stronger. Just over one-third of respondents, 34–37 percent, supported Rüütel, while around half supported Ilves.

Ilves' rating peaked during second term

Arnold Rüütel decided not to run in the Riigikogu rounds of the 2006 presidential election. Only one candidate appeared in the parliamentary voting rounds — Ene Ergma in the first round and Toomas Hendrik Ilves in the second and third. Members of the People's Union and the Center Party did not take ballot papers. Ergma received 65 votes in the first round, while Ilves received 64 votes in both the second and third rounds. A minimum of 68 votes was required for election.

The election therefore once again moved to the Electoral College.

In a survey conducted shortly beforehand, in which respondents were asked to choose between the two candidates, 48 percent supported Ilves and 34 percent supported Rüütel.

In the Sept. 23, 2006 vote in the electoral college, 345 electors took part. Ilves received 174 votes and Rüütel 162, making Ilves president of Estonia.

When Toomas Hendrik Ilves moved into Kadriorg in 2006, 71 percent of respondents said they trusted him, while 18 percent did not support him. Ilves' approval rating even increased in the following years. In June and July 2007, the share of supporters rose to 75 percent. By the end of his first term, support had declined somewhat, though it remained high at 65 percent.

In the 2011 presidential election, Ilves faced Indrek Tarand, who had been nominated by the Center Party, in the Riigikogu vote. Ilves received 73 votes and Tarand 25.

However, beginning with the start of his second term in 2011, trust in Ilves began to decline. Over seven years, the number of people who did not trust him as president doubled. In the final survey conducted at the end of his second term, 49 percent said they trusted Ilves as president — 22 percentage points lower than at the beginning of his first term.

Many lacked a stance on Kaljulaid

The 2016 presidential election ended without a result in either the Riigikogu or Electoral College rounds. On September 27, 2016, the Riigikogu board of elders proposed Kersti Kaljulaid as a presidential candidate. On October 3, Kaljulaid was elected president of Estonia with overwhelming support, receiving 81 votes in favor.

That same month, the newspaper Eesti Päevaleht commissioned a poll from Turu-uuringute AS on support for the new president. The survey found that 49 percent of respondents trusted Kaljulaid, the same level as her predecessor Toomas Hendrik Ilves had at the end of his term.

There was, however, one important difference in the two presidents' approval ratings. While the share of respondents who considered Ilves untrustworthy at the end of his presidency had reached 39 percent, only 10 percent viewed Kaljulaid with distrust at the start of her term. At the same time, there was also a large number of respondents — 41 percent — who did not express an opinion on her trustworthiness.

Kaljulaid's approval rating also declined toward the end of her presidency, though not as sharply as Ilves'. In the final year of her term, 49 percent trusted Kaljulaid and 34 percent did not trust her, according to a survey conducted in December 2020. A year later, during the presidency of her successor, virtually the same share — 46 percent — still said they trusted Kaljulaid, according to a February 2022 survey.

Support for Karis has remained high

Kersti Kaljulaid did not seek a second term and in 2021 Alar Karis was elected Estonia's new president in the second round of voting in the Riigikogu.

Support for Karis has on average been around 10 percentage points higher than support for Kaljulaid during her presidency. By now, that gap has widened to as much as 20 percentage points.

The Government Office has been consistently studying trust in the presidential institution since 2022. In March of this year, trust in the institution of the presidency rose to 76 percent, the highest result of the past three years. An Emor nationwide survey commissioned by the Government Office found that support for the presidency increased among both ethnic Estonian and non-Estonian respondents.

A separate issue is measuring trust in the individual currently serving as president, which is usually lower than trust in the institution itself. For example, in a survey on trust in politicians conducted this February, Alar Karis's trust rating as a politician stood at 60 percent, compared with 76 percent trust in the presidential institution in the March survey.

Overall, it can be said that Estonian presidents generally begin their terms with relatively high approval ratings, with the exception of Lennart Meri's first term, but support tends to decline to varying degrees by the end of their presidencies.

For presidents who had the opportunity to serve two terms — Meri and Toomas Hendrik Ilves — support was higher during their first term.

Changes in support are also significantly influenced by the emergence of alternative candidates, giving voters a chance to form opinions through direct comparison.

Survey results also differ depending on whether respondents are asked about support for the institution of the presidency, which tends to be higher, or for the specific politician holding the office, which tends to be lower.

The comparison was compiled with the help of Emor research expert Aivar Voog.

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