The survey, conducted on a monthly basis by pollsters Emor on behalf of ERR, found the coalition Reform Party's rating has fallen to 10 percent, also a record low, at least since 2000.

Reform and Eesti 200 have been in office together since 2023, initially with the Social Democrats (SDE), who were ejected from office in spring last year.

All four opposition parties, Isamaa, the Center Party, SDE, and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), had a higher rating than Reform in the latest Emor poll, while the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed was only one percentage point behind Reform.

Isamaa remains the most supported party, albeit with a small lead over the Center Party: Isamaa was supported by 24 percent in May, while Center's rating stood at 21 percent. A month earlier, support for both parties had been one percentage point higher, so the gap has not changed.

According to Emor research expert Aivar Voog, if the survey's margins of error are taken into account (+/-2.2 percent for Isamaa and +/-2.1 percent for the Center Party), the difference between the two leading parties, who are in office together in Tallinn as it is, is not even statistically significant.

In third place came SDE, whose support remained at 17 percent (with a +/-2.0 percent margin of error) for the second consecutive month — the party's highest level in recent years.

EKRE's rating increased significantly: While 9 percent supported the party in April, the May survey showed support had jumped to 14 percent (with a +/-1.8 percent margin of error). At the same time, this figure is considered EKRE's typical support level for recent years; Voog assessed April's 9 percent rating for EKRE as likely random fluctuation.

The rally also meant Reform dropping to fifth place with 10 percent support (off a +/-1.5 percent margin of error). Earlier this year, Reform had rated at 12 percent. Voog said 10 percent is the Reform Party's lowest support level since 2001.

By contrast, at the last Riigikogu election in March 2023, Reform polled at 32.1 percent and won 37 seats. At that time, the party was led by Kaja Kallas, who was returned as prime minister. Kallas stepped down in summer 2024, ahead of taking up the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy position. She was replaced by Kristen Michal as party leader and head of government.

Snapping at Reform's heels is Parempoolsed, whose support has shown steady incremental growth in recent months, from 7 percent in March, to 8 percent in April, and 9 percent (+/-1.4 percent) this month according to Emor. Parempoolsed also compete primarily for Reform votes, and those of Isamaa, with regard to economic policy and in some other areas.

Eesti 200 has long been in the doldrums and below the electoral threshold of 5 percent, at just 2 percent support in May (+/-0.8 percent margin of error). The last time Eesti 200 reached the 5-percent threshold, needed to win seats in a given electoral district, was two years ago. The rating is also the same as that of the Estonian Greens (Rohelised), who have not been represented at the Riigikogu for many years now.

Eesti 200 had been dogged by a Ukraine donations embezzlement scandal, but this was several years ago – in 2023 – and the party has never recovered from that low. Nonetheless, it holds the key positions of Riigikogu speaker and minister of foreign affairs.

The ERK, a breakaway party from EKRE, polled at 1 percent, as did the pro-Kremlin Koos/Vmeste party, in May.

As noted, the coalition's combined support fell to 12 percent in May, which Voog said was similarly a record low.

The Emor survey results above only count those respondents who expressed a party preference. When "don't know" respondents are also factored in – this demographic made up 24 percent of respondents overall in May – the governing coalition's combined support came to just 9.4 percent.

By party and including unpledged respondents, support in May stood at 17.9 percent for Isamaa, and 15.7 percent for Center. SDE polled at 13.2 percent, EKRE's rating was 10.5 percent, Reform's 7.5 percent, Parempoolsed had a 6.4 percent rating, and Eesti 200 polled at 1.9 percent.

Among native Estonian-speaking respondents, Isamaa ranked first in May with 28 percent support, followed by SDE at 20 percent. EKRE polled at 16 percent with this demographic, the Reform Party at 12 percent, Parempoolsed at 10 percent, Center at 9 percent, and Eesti 200 at 3 percent.

Among non-native Estonian-speaking respondents, mostly meaning voters who are Estonian citizens but whose first language is Russian, the Center Party held an overwhelming lead at 74 percent support. SDE and EKRE got 6 percent each, just ahead of Koos/Vmeste at 5 percent. Isamaa polled at just 3 percent with this societal group.

In Tallinn, Center was most supported at 35 percent, followed by SDE at 19 percent, Isamaa with 14 percent, the Right-Wingers with 10 percent, the Reform Party with nine percent, EKRE with eight percent, and Eesti 200 with 3 percent.

In Ida-Viru County, Center was also the most supported, at 62 percent.
In all other regions of Estonia, Isamaa ranked first.

By age group, SDE was clearly the most popular choice among both 18–24-year-olds and 25–34-year-olds. Center ranked first among those aged 35–49, though its lead over Isamaa in this age group falls within the statistical margin of error. Similarly, Isamaa's lead over the Center Party among respondents aged 75 and older also lies within the margin of error. Isamaa was the most popular party among those aged 50–64 and the next age bracket, 65–74-year-olds.

Isamaa and EKRE in particular have noticeably stronger support among male voters. By contrast, SDE and Center see more support among women voters. With the other parties, no significant gender differences were detected.

In its May survey, Emor quizzed 1,429 voting-age citizens across Estonia online and over the phone, in the period May 11 and 20. The maximum possible margin of error is +/-2.2 percent with a sample of this size, Emor says.

The next direct elections in Estonia are to the Riigikogu, in March 2027.