Which of NATO's allies are prepared to die for Bornholm? That is the question posed by a historian of the Danish island in the documentary "NATO Under Attack" released earlier this year. Sound familiar? How many times have we heard the claim that no one is really prepared to die for Narva? It turns out the Danes have the same concerns.

Denmark threatened

The film operates on two levels. One concerns Denmark's readiness to stand up to Russia, while the other reflects deep frustration that under U.S. President Donald Trump, NATO is no longer the collective defense organization it once was.

Trump is the only U.S. president who has never said that NATO would defend every inch of its territory. On the contrary, he has repeatedly questioned America's willingness to come to the aid of its allies and has even encouraged Russia to test NATO.

Danes are especially embittered by Trump's threats to take control of Greenland. Although Trump has not repeated that demand recently, being preoccupied with Iran, Danes believe the issue remains very much on the agenda. Offering a somewhat hopeful note is the recent news that the United States and Denmark have for some time been engaged in secret negotiations over the construction of three new U.S. military bases in Greenland. Those bases could be granted the status of sovereign U.S. territory.

As for the Russian threat, Danes are acutely aware of it. They have repeatedly been targeted by Russian hybrid attacks, with drones disrupting operations at several airports. Denmark is also a target for Russia because it is one of Ukraine's most active supporters. Denmark has sharply increased its defense budget and this year women will, for the first time, also be required to complete military service. At the same time, there is an acknowledgment that without the United States, Russia cannot be confronted effectively.

Searching for a paper tiger

Swedish Armed Forces Commander Gen. Michael Claesson recently said that Russia may test NATO sooner than previously believed. That could happen in the Baltic Sea region by attacking an island and putting NATO's unity to the test. The general did not specify whether that island could be Bornholm, Gotland or perhaps even Saaremaa or Hiiumaa.

Russia certainly has a strong temptation right now to test NATO. There is little comfort in assuming that as long as Russia remains tied down in Ukraine, it lacks the resources to challenge NATO directly. It still has ample capability for a targeted special operation.

One reason is that while Europe is rearming, it is doing so extremely slowly. Russia certainly does not want to wait until that rearmament is complete. Another reason is the dispute between the United States and its European allies. After the congressional midterm elections in November, the winds in Washington may shift in a direction unfavorable to Russia. Third, the United States is preoccupied with Iran and nobody knows for how long. What was supposed to be a short, victorious military campaign has all but turned into a defeat. The parallel is not entirely accurate, but Russia also expected to conquer Ukraine in three days.

Donald Trump has called NATO a paper tiger. Looking at what is unfolding around the Persian Gulf, one might ask who the real paper tiger actually is. At the moment, it does not appear to be Iran. One would very much like to believe that the paper tiger we saw was the one on display in Moscow on May 9 where the scaled-down parade could only be held thanks to Ukraine's goodwill.

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