Ancient Greek historian Thucydides once said, "Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." Where does this leave us and our dear Republic of Estonia? Are we the weak ones who must suffer? Or is there a way for even a small state to achieve equal status with a large one at a crucial moment?

Our people

"If history teaches us anything, it is that warnings alone are not always sufficient to protect the victim from surprise /.../ I attribute this to three reasons: the first is the human trait of denying tragedy, denying disaster — it's very common; the second is the reluctance to cause public panic; and the third was the belief that they knew Russia well." (General Mark Milley on the start of the war in Ukraine)

In my view, there is a risk that our society will fall into the same trap. This gives us, the members of the Defense Forces, a very important task: to maintain public vigilance. We must not incite panic, but at the same time, we must not minimize the problem. We must offer our confirmed knowledge of the enemy wherever possible, in order to rob them of the power of mystery. We need to be ready to give advice on how civilians can better prepare themselves or what to do in a difficult situation, such as when coming under indirect fire.

By doing so, we become a strong voice in society, trusted for our integrity and respected for our knowledge.

If Ukraine has demonstrated anything to us, it is that a motivated soldier needs a strong support system. On a personal level, it means that their loved ones are protected, provided for and morally supportive of their struggle. On a societal level, this means that the people themselves are prepared to endure hardship so their Defense forces can continue to fight. This includes societal support as well as material support for our activities.

We need it all. It is our duty to explain to our people what "war" means as well as we can.

Threat

Unfortunately, given the current balance of power and trends in the world, we can predict that the war in Ukraine will not end with Russia being incapacitated to act in our direction.

After the de facto end of the war in Ukraine, the Russian Federation will be a country whose entire economy is geared towards the war industry, with a strong army that is experienced in modern warfare, equipment, and a dictator whose hope of remaining in power for the rest of his life depends on keeping his country at war. Not to mention Russia's imperialist ambitions.

This means that Russia will restore the combat readiness of its army after exiting the war in Ukraine. At the same time, new targets are likely being identified, and destabilizing actions and campaigns are being prepared.

The year 2027 is, in my estimation, the year when Russia's combat readiness will have been restored, and if it then senses a favorable opportunity to deploy its military somewhere, it will do so.

Formula for victory

What is the formula for victory against such a seemingly immense threat? It's simple:

R = M x W x A

R – resistance. As long as none of the elements that it consists of are broken, our resistance cannot be broken.

M – means, which are all the resources available: people, weapons, vehicles, ammunition, and everything else necessary to achieve our goal.

W – will to fight. It is the will to fight, to attack, to defend, to endure hardship  —  the ability to cope in stressful situations and move towards our goal despite all the difficulties.

A – authorization. This includes the authority to act. More specifically, I mean our authority to act in all kinds of situations (which may not even be an imminent military threat) in the way necessary to actually counter the threat. It also includes a mandate for our allies to act with us from the first moment the need to act arises.

Our Defense Forces

The war in Ukraine has shown that, in my view, we need to be much better prepared by 2027 than we are today. Developments have been so rapid that leaps forward need to be made in several areas:

1. The will to fight;
2. Sustainable human resources strategy and practice;
3. Situational awareness and understanding;
4. Achieving combat readiness of military capabilities;
5. An effective kill chain that, if necessary, preemptively delivers effects into enemy territory.

An active plan is being developed on how the Defense Forces can achieve a new normal by 2027.

In short, this means that we have set up a 24-hour operational combat readiness posture. This puts additional demands on all of us. We need to be ready for changes in our resources, routines, and practices. This requires the contribution from each and every member of the Estonian Defense Forces because it cannot be achieved by placing the burden on only some of us. It will require us to review the conscription training cycle and how to integrate them into a combat watch that operates at all times.

1. Will to fight

The will to fight is an individual and collective decision to fight to achieve a goal despite the risk of death. The prerequisites for the will to fight are physical and mental capacity, skills, adequate armament and equipment, previous experience of success in a similar situation, and faith in one's commander, the members of one's unit, and the rightness of the goal.

The war in Ukraine has shown that although the most horrific acts, new technologies, and solutions make it to the news, the indispensable link in all this is the human being. Russia is very skilled at breaking down the will to fight, and a less knowledgeable person would have no idea how the drop-by-drop effects can ultimately spill over the top.

Developing the will to fight must be systematic through improving the quality of training and enforcing combat discipline at all levels. Training must be oriented towards operational success and derived from wartime tasks.

To achieve this, it is necessary to examine the problem and involve the members of the Defense Forces in order to gain an understanding of the current state of the forces' will to fight. I expect every member of the Estonian Defense Forces at every level to be ready to make an honest contribution to this.

2. Sustainable human resources strategy and practice

In the Defense Forces, human resources management must be based on a meaningful personnel strategy, centered on motivated, competent, and autonomous solution-oriented commanders at all levels.

This strategy will be developed by the Defense Resources Agency (DRA), and each of us must support its implementation.

At the same time, we can't lean only on DRA and expect them to do everything for us. There are many things we can improve ourselves, such as:

1. re-establishing traditions, symbols, collective activities, discipline, historical role models, and events to be ensured through leadership;
2. improving transparency of existing practices (e.g. common basis for performance pay);
3. giving honest and constructive feedback;
4. keeping an open mind to innovation and displaying a willingness to go along with it.

It saddens me that some of our service members are, for one reason or another, disappointed in the Defense Forces system. The flame that once brought us into the Defense Forces must not be extinguished by anyone. We cannot change the past, so here's my proposal to you: let's turn a new page together. Let the past remain in the past and let us work together for the future. For those who cannot find this new beginning within themselves, I hope they have the wisdom to retreat and seek their happiness in other areas of life.

Ultimately, I want the Estonian Defense Forces to be a more collegial, people-friendly, and pleasant organization to serve in.

3. Situational awareness and understanding

Situational awareness must be achieved and translated into situational understanding. This creates the conditions for threat-preventive decision-making processes.

This requires the creation of new structures that address these issues. We all need to understand the situation and the threat in the same way throughout the Defense Forces. When a private citizen asks on the street what the Defense Forces are preparing for, there must be a consistent and unified response.

It means that we need to inform all of our Defense personnel with consistent messages across our structure, taking into account the need for information and access restrictions. Commanders have a big role to play here, and overviews of the situation must be made more widely available.

4. Achieving combat readiness of military capabilities

We need to develop our military capabilities to a state of full combat readiness ensuring the preemptive ability to maintain control across all domains of warfare: air, land, sea, and cyber.

This means acquiring new, modern capabilities, the need for which we have identified from the war in Ukraine. We will review procurement priorities and ensure we have the equipment we need most to fight a modern war. Where necessary, the acquisition of certain capabilities will be accelerated.

Procurement of technology and equipment alone is not enough. We also require trained personnel capable of effectively employing these systems who can use this technology and equipment. This is one of the requirements for the "gap year". This year, the focus must be on training the active-duty personnel to apply the lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. These developments will later have to be reflected in the conscript training programs.

5. An effective kill chain that, if necessary, preemptively delivers effects into enemy territory

We need to ensure that we have the ability to identify targets, monitor them, direct effects at them, and assess the results. Moreover, we must ensure that we have the authority and courage to preemptively bring these effects across the border, if necessary.

We will never initiate a war, but we must not be passive when it is clear that Russian armed forces are moving towards the Estonian border. This requires a very clear understanding of the situation, modern capabilities, and a strong will to fight. In fact, it means everything outlined in the previous points, to bring the war to the aggressor's soil.

Equal, strong and weak

Who are we, then? It is my conviction that if all the goals are set and all the activities that have been planned have been completed, we will be in a very good position to achieve our primary goal: the Defense Forces ready for victory.

The independent power of resistance (M x W), reinforced by the real contribution of the allies (A), has reached a level that nullifies the adversary's options through the prevention of escalation.

Simply put, the enemy will not find a moment when we are vulnerable to their attack. Such a result can only be achieved through thorough preparation, training, available supplies, technology, and equipment. We also need our society to be strong and self-reliant, to trust and support us. There must be a strong unity of arms, and unity among ourselves. That is what I stand for, and I call on all of you to stand for it, too!

Estonia will defend itself in any event and against any threat, regardless of its origin or the time and place it emerges. However overwhelming the adversary, Estonia will never surrender (National Security Concept of Estonia 2023).

Andrus Merilo's article was first published in the 2025 Estonian Defense Forces Yearbook.

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