This despite a slight drop in diesel prices seen Thursday morning in Estonia following Monday's all-time record high of €2.30 per liter, following the announcement of the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Part of the issue, Kärsna told "Aktuaalne kaamera," is the very different interpretation placed on the 10-point deal which put the ceasefire in place.

Is there now to be peace for two weeks? On the one hand, we have information that the Strait of Hormuz is open; on the other, a statement from Iran just came that all vessels passing through the strait without permission will be sunk.

I can state that right now the sole thing that is clear is that nothing is clear. The ceasefire had lasted about eight hours when an oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was actually hit by a drone; now new conditions are being added [to the two-week deal, requiring that peace also be made in Lebanon. This is not only about Iran, and both sides interpret the 10 points differently.

My feeling, although I am far away, is that the first ships did manage to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The positive side may be that nearby Arab countries have also begun to express their dissatisfaction more forcefully, which has created pressure.

In any case, the markets reacted positively right away. The price of oil dropped, though not enough to return to pre-crisis levels.

This was pure emotion. While previous statements by Donald Trump suggested that the situation might change again, this time the tone was very firm — the ships will move. Earlier, there had been various conditions. This reassured the markets. The first ships did indeed pass through, heading toward Pakistan, which is mediating the peace talks. However by this evening the strait will be closed again.

Will this emotion and relief eventually be reflected in the fuel prices at our gas stations?

It depends on what happens tomorrow. Since the markets are closed this evening, we will see tomorrow morning (Thursday morning – ed.) again how the prices move. This might indeed be a sort of trampoline effect — down briefly and then back up again.

Your colleague and competitor, Terminal CEO Allan Vaht, said that the fuel market situation is now dire and high prices are still to come. If so, when and how high will they be?

They will come if the situation escalates. If prices stay at where they fell today, then the record highs we saw at the beginning of the week will come down. But this depends on the future. I think that over the next couple of months we will still see diesel prices around €2 [per liter].

How long would the ceasefire need to last and traffic flow without disruption for us to return to the pre-war situation?

As I have said before, it will take at least half a year for stocks to be replenished and for real confidence to emerge. At the moment, there are about two hundred ships waiting to pass, so this is only a slight alleviation. As of today, Iran has clearly realized that the Strait of Hormuz is very powerful leverage with which to push through its demands. I think those 10 points could at some point turn into 15 or more. We will see.

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