Low birth rate and migration to shrink Estonia's population by a third by century's end
A population forecast by researchers at Tallinn University found that persistently low birth rates combined with balanced migration would reduce Estonia's population to under 700,000 by the end of the century.
Fewer than 10,000 children were born in Estonia in each of the past two years. According to available data, age-specific fertility rates have declined consistently in recent years by one-fifth or more. "The strong inertia of demographic change means that slowing or reversing negative trends takes decades," the authors of a report presented Monday at the demographic conference organized by NGO Chamber of Principle said.
Researchers noted that the smaller generations born after Estonia regained independence have now reached childbearing age, reducing the number of births. Society's broader values and attitudes toward parenthood have also changed. The report found that decisions to have children are additionally being postponed because of multiple external crises and the rapid rise in the cost of living.
With this in mind, senior researcher Martin Klesment of the Estonian Center for Demography at Tallinn University developed three main future scenarios that track not only population size but also changes in ethnic composition. The purpose of the models was not to provide a single definitive forecast, but to illustrate the combined effects of fertility and migration scenarios. Klesment modeled different possibilities to assess social processes affecting Estonia's population through 2100.
Under the bleakest scenario, fertility remains at its current low level, with women having an average of 1.3 children. Assuming balanced migration, Estonia's population would shrink by nearly half by the end of the century, falling to 670,000 people. The annual number of births would decline by two-thirds during that period, to around 3,700 births a year.
On paper, population decline could be avoided through positive net migration. If 8,000 more people moved to Estonia each year than left the country, the population would remain at its current level. By the end of the century, this would add as many as 600,000 new residents with migrant backgrounds to the country.
As a result of sustained high immigration, ethnic Estonians would make up less than half of the total population. Among children and younger generations, Estonians would become a minority even sooner.
"The price of a persistently large migration surplus would be a fundamental change in Estonia's population composition," Klesment said in the report.
Rate of replacement 2.1 children per woman
A third scenario outlines a future in which fertility begins rising again over the coming decades. In a scenario where women have an average of 1.6 or 1.9 children, the outlook for both population size and the size of future generations would become considerably more positive. Even an increase of 0.3 children per woman would have a major long-term effect on demographic sustainability.
Based on the models, the researcher found that with balanced migration and a fertility rate of 1.9 children per woman, annual births would exceed 10,700 by the end of the century. Under the medium scenario of 1.6 children per woman, around 6,630 children would be born each year.
However, to avoid population decline entirely without immigration, the total fertility rate would need to rise to replacement level, or 2.1 children per woman.
In their calculations, the researchers assumed that the selected fertility targets would be reached in the 2040s. They then assumed those levels would remain stable through the end of the century. All of the scenarios also projected continued increases in average life expectancy.
The findings must be interpreted in light of the model's built-in limitations. For example, the forecast does not account for the partial assimilation of immigrants, which could slightly increase the share of ethnic Estonians. Researchers estimate that in reality, some descendants of newcomers would gradually integrate into the Estonian population through mixed families. In regions where ethnic Estonians remain clearly dominant, this process occurs more naturally and quickly, while the shrinking size of the native population reduces opportunities for integration elsewhere.
The model also assumed zero future migration among ethnic Estonians. The assumption of balanced inward and outward migration among the native population was based on the fact that ethnic Estonians have posted a slightly positive migration balance over the past decade. Analysts believe, however, that the potential for ethnic Estonians to return to the country will continue to diminish in the future.
To maintain at least the current level of prosperity in the future, experts recommend seeking solutions from domestic resources. The focus should shift toward extending working lives, empowering older people and supporting higher birth rates over the long term.
"Recognizing population decline would force many major construction projects to be shelved," the report's authors emphasized.
According to the report's authors, societies must find ways to halt unsustainable population decline. The researchers argued that Estonia needs to return to near-replacement fertility levels more quickly than larger nations.
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Editor: Mari Peegel, Marcus Turovski
