Last week, Ukraine attacked two of Russia's most important ports on the Baltic Sea, Primorsk near the Finnish border and Ust-Luga close to Estonia. The drone attacks damaged infrastructure and started large fires, suspending exports.

Russia exports 60 percent of its oil by sea, via the Baltic Sea. Calculations by the Reuters news agency show that at least 40 percent of Russia's oil export volumes have been halted. This will leave a significant hole in the state budget.

The strikes are unlikely to end the war, but they are the most impactful countermeasure since the start of the full-scale war, experts say.

"This has an enormous impact, especially considering that in 2022, revenues from Russia's oil exports were €242 billion. In 2025, this was €200 billion, an 18 percent decline. This has had the greatest overall impact since the war in Ukraine began. No sanction has been as effective as what Ukraine has now managed to do," said Alan Vaht, a member of the management board of Terminal, Estonia's oldest fuel retailer.

Approximately 3.5 million barrels of oil are usually exported from Russia every day.

"If 40 percent of exports via Ust-Luga and Primorsk are down, this would mean a daily financial loss for Russia of about $50 to $55 million every single day," Vaht told Saturday's "Aktuaalne kaamera".

In addition to oil refining, Russia also produces large amounts of fuel oil for export. As it can no longer be sold abroad, the surplus will disrupt the whole production process, reducing the production and export of oil products even more than crude oil exports.

"If too much fuel oil accumulates, it can no longer be produced, and if more fuel oil cannot be produced, then diesel, gasoline, and kerosene will also stop coming out. So not just 40 percent, but 50 percent is affected because of this. Product exports are likely to be halted for some time, even more so than crude oil exports themselves," said economic expert Raivo Vare.

Workers at the Port of Ust-Luga, around 30 kilometers from Estonia's eastern border, have begun protesting – something not previously seen in Russia.

"Workers began protesting because the port was shut down and a police car drove into the workers. This has not happened before. Discontent has emerged," Vare said.

Drone attacks on Russian ports are not expected to affect Estonia significantly for now. On Saturday, smoke from a fire at Ust-Luga was visible in Narva and the eastern Estonian city of Sillamäe.

Due to a southwesterly wind, a thousand-kilometer-long plume of smoke moved over Lake Ladoga toward northwestern Russia, making it unlikely that the smoke will reach Estonia.

"Let's put it this way: if in the coming days — at the beginning of the month — smoke is still an issue, then a northerly wind could push it in this direction, but fortunately, there is still some time before that," said Kaido Ennok, a meteorologist at the Environment Agency.

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