The tenth annual report assessing the state of democracy by the V-Dem research center at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden was published last week. Indexes and reports of this kind may not allow us to delve very deeply into the specific circumstances of any one country, since democracy has many different shades and nuances, but they are well suited to sketching an overall picture of the current situation.

The report brought little good news. As many as three-quarters (74 percent) of the world's population now live in autocracies — countries where citizens have limited opportunities to influence who governs them and what policies are implemented, where laws are not applied equally to all and where the separation of powers is not guaranteed.

As recently as 2005, roughly equal numbers of people lived in democracies and autocracies. Today, the number of countries moving toward autocracy (44) far exceeds those moving toward democracy (18). Particularly sharp backsliding is taking place in the area of freedom of expression, which has shown signs of decline in nearly a quarter of the world's countries (44).

Our own Eastern European region ranks on par with Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of democratic standards. Only 5 percent of the region's population lives in liberal democracies — regimes where not only regular elections take place, but the rule of law and all individual freedoms are also guaranteed. According to the index, these countries include the Baltic states and the Czech Republic. Another quarter of Eastern Europe's population lives in electoral democracies, where elections function properly but the other aforementioned aspects fall short.

Estonia remains in a high sixth place in the V-Dem index, with no significant changes observed in its case. Naturally, this does not mean that the functioning of democracy in Estonia is flawless. Moreover, in other democracy indexes — such as those measuring participatory or deliberative democracy — Estonia ranks far lower than it does in the liberal democracy index, which focuses primarily on constitutional institutions.

Since the last elections, the share of people who trust the Estonian government and parliament has dropped significantly, appearing to fluctuate somewhere between 29 and 37 percent. It remains to be seen whether the spring wave of opinion surveys will show continued fluctuation or whether politicians in parliament and government will manage to gain greater approval ahead of the upcoming elections.

In light of global trends, the question remains what we ourselves can do to protect Estonia from democratic backsliding to ensure that our democracy remains resilient. So that people feel their will is being taken into account and that the Estonian state functions as set out in law and in the interests of its people.

Researchers of democracy have identified several factors that help ensure democratic resilience. These include, for example, institutions that guarantee proportionality and prevent power from becoming too concentrated in the hands of a single political segment. They also include attitudes such as empathy, a sense of belonging and trust — both trust in institutions and mutual trust among political elites. It is this very trust that enables cooperation, for example, in parliament.

Trust in institutions depends to a large extent on how well political parties, civil society organizations and state institutions perform in making people feel that their preferences and needs are taken into account.

Many of the attitudes mentioned presuppose a certain level of well-being and a sense of security. It is precisely the latter that has, in several places — including the United States — been linked to democratic decline. Particularly concerning is the fact that economic insecurity is associated with the onset of autocratization and once a country enters that spiral, improvements in security do not necessarily lead to re-democratization.

A number of post-election surveys show that so-called "bread-and-butter" issues are the most important for many European voters.

Monitoring commissioned by the Government Office indicates that over the past three years, trends in economic security and well-being among Estonia's population have been negative. It remains to be seen whether the tax changes that came into force this year will reverse that trend and how long-lasting any such effect might be.

This leads to a recommendation for political parties — one that, it seems to me, many are already beginning to follow. For voters, the key question is not whether you prefer MAGA or Macron, but rather how convincingly your ideological vision can ensure people's well-being and sense of security over the long term. A strong performance on this question will not only deliver solid election results but will also help safeguard the resilience of Estonia's democracy.

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