Political scientist Martin Mölder told ERR that the fact such an overwhelming majority of citizens support Alar Karis serving a second term and that this majority exists among supporters of virtually all parties, including those of EKRE, puts some forces, especially the Reform Party, in a somewhat difficult position.

"On the one hand, there is a sense that perhaps the Reform Party and Eesti 200 might not want Alar Karis to continue for a second term. But at the same time, considering that their voters also strongly support Alar Karis and trust the institution of the presidency, this places them in quite a complicated situation," he added.

Mölder said that if the Reform Party is unwilling to support Karis, it would be going against the wishes of its voters, which may not reflect well on its support or image. "At the same time, if they decide to support Karis for a second term, then in some sense they are also making a strategically poor choice for themselves, because Alar Karis has been visibly quite critical of the government and of the Reform Party as well," he said.

"The Reform Party is in a position where they are damned if they do and damned if they don't," Mölder added.

Annika Arras likewise acknowledged that the situation is more complicated for the Reform Party than it might have expected.

"When support for one candidate is not so strong, it is always easier to come forward with alternative candidates. At the same time, the current support for President Karis should perhaps also be viewed somewhat critically in the sense that no alternative candidate has emerged who would themselves say that they are ready to run. In reality, people in Estonia today do not have a very clear opportunity to make a firm choice between one candidate or another, since everything remains quite hypothetical at the moment," Arras commented.

Arras noted that the coalition side has also sent a clear message to the Social Democrats that they should come forward with their own candidate or candidates so that their nominee could also be discussed.

According to Mölder, there have been signs that relations between the government and Alar Karis have not been particularly warm.

"The president has put the brakes on several laws passed by the government. We remember the conflict between the foreign ministry and the president. There is a sense of friction and perhaps the contrast most sharply appeared in the president's and the prime minister's speeches on Independence Day. It is clear that the prime minister and the president politically exist in very different worlds or on very different levels," Mölder said.

Reform's about-turn

About a month ago, messages from Alar Karis in the foreign media initially prompted criticism from Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna of Eesti 200 and from Prime Minister and Reform Party leader Kristen Michal. Quite suddenly, however, the Reform Party walked back its criticism and avoided making sharp remarks about Karis, even saying it does not rule out supporting him if he runs for a second term.

"That shift in the public information space was somewhat unexpected. Just two or three weeks earlier, the general sense was that the current coalition did not favor the sitting president continuing in office, but at one point the tone changed. Perhaps this was also the result of the fact that when these negative developments related to foreign policy messaging occurred, they prompted a fairly strong response in the media, which in no way favored the idea that there are disagreements between state leaders or on foreign policy issues. People in Estonia still want to see that our state leaders are able to cooperate with one another," Arras said.

"So I believe that in a sense this was also a turning point as to why the direction taken at Stenbock House was that the goal is to work together rather than create additional confusion domestically. I think this display of unity and the renewed suggestion that the sitting president could continue was quite a conscious choice and I believe it is a very serious alternative," she added.

Mölder said the Reform Party appears to be trying to remain strategically ambiguous. "This situation would ultimately be resolved if a concrete decision were made. I do not think the president will say anything definite himself until he is certain that he has the necessary 68 votes in the Riigikogu," Mölder said.

"Considering the current support for the governing parties and the level of trust in the president and the institution of the presidency, it would even be strategically sensible for the governing parties to swallow that bitter pill and support Karis for a second term, because that would reflect well on their image. Ultimately, if they start fighting or maneuvering around the process, there is a certain reputational risk involved," Mölder added.

According to Arras, one factor preventing some parties from fully backing Karis is the question of whether another candidate might be stronger in foreign policy.

"I think all parties in Estonia today would be prepared to agree among themselves that President Karis should continue, because he has been a good president for Estonia. But if they were able to reach a candidate whose foreign policy potential — both personally and in the role of president — might be higher than that of the incumbent, then that is where discussion opens up and perhaps an alternative would be considered. Until such a person appears, it is more likely that Alar Karis will continue," Arras said.

The presidential election will take place in September this year.

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