The Reform–Eesti 200 coalition will not last through to the Riigikogu elections next March, opposition politicians say.

Lauri Hussar (Eesti 200) was returned as President of the Riigikogu, a highly influential position, on Thursday, thanks to coalition MPs voting in favor.

However, leader of the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDE) Lauri Läänemets said this was no indication of the coalition's continued survival for the next 12 months.

"I think this vote did not guarantee the coalition's long-term survival. That the coalition will lose its majority is quite certain," Läänemets told "Aktuaalne kaamera".

Opposition politicians also pointed out the rather unusual, though not unprecedented, alignment which saw the left-of-center SDE and the right-wing Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) vote together, both for the opposition challenger for the Riigikogu post, Riina Sikkut (SDE) and for the opposition's candidate for the second deputy speaker, Arvo Aller (EKRE).

"Yes, and the Social Democrats are voting for an EKRE candidate. That's how it turned out, and I think it is, in itself, a rather nice symbol," said EKRE chairman Martin Helme.

Isamaa faction leader Helir-Valdor Seeder said the vote had been democracy in action. "There is no united opposition to assume that the opposition has a need or strong pressure to stick together. That pressure did not exist. It was a free democratic choice of the opposition," Seeder, a former party leader, said.
In the event, Aller was returned to the post for a second term, while Sikkut was defeated by Hussar.

Since the vote was conducted via secret ballot, it is not clear exactly who voted which way, and, for instance, whether the seven spoiled ballots came from any opposition faction, or from unaffiliated MPs, or for that matter even coalition MPs.

Hussar himself implied the latter situation had not happened. "All the votes from the governing coalition held, and I am pleased about that because it confirms that the coalition is strong and stable. In today's very complex international security situation, Estonia needs a stable and strong government, and we have that today," Hussar told "Aktuaalne kaamera".

Reform Party faction leader Õnne Pillak too said the vote demonstrated the unity of the coalition,

"As Lauri Läänemets has been saying for at least a year, if not longer, that the coalition is about to collapse — again and again we prove that he is wrong," Pillak said.

"Fifty-two votes show that the coalition stands firmly together and that we will get everything done that needs to be done," she added.

Under the Reform–Eesti 200 coalition pact signed last year, the Riigikogu speaker post remains with Eesti 200. The coalition nominated the incumbent, Hussar, a former Eesti 200 leader, and before that a former Postimees editor-in-chief.

While SDE sought support for Sikkut from within the coalition, "Aktuaalne kaamera" reported it was clear ahead of the vote that Hussar would continue in his post.

Whereas the opposition had estimated Hussar would receive between 44 and 48 votes, once those votes were counted, Hussar exceeded that with 52 votes to Sikkut's 41.

The Reform Party's deputy speaker candidate, Toomas Kivimägi, was also re-elected as first deputy speaker with 55 votes, meaning some opposition or unaffiliated MPs voted for him. Aller was voted second deputy with 40 votes.

Traditionally, at least one deputy speaker position belongs to the opposition.
SDE had been in office with Reform and Eesti 200 until the latter expelled them last spring.

Since then, the coalition has only enjoyed a slim majority of 52 seats in the 101-seat chamber.

An additional dimension to party politics at present is the need to find a two-thirds majority when coming to vote for who will be Estonia's next president, starting late summer. The process is overseen by the Riigikogu speaker and his two deputies, who, together with the six party faction leaders, have the final say if voting at the Riigikogu and with the regional electoral college draws a blank.

The Riigikogu elections take place in early March 2027.

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