German line Aida Cruises had already decided last year to redirect its ships more toward Northern Europe following the U.S.-Israeli counterstrikes beginning right at the end of February, and the ensuing Iranian counterstrikes. Today, Tuesday, the first Aida Prima cruise ship is due to put in in Tallinn.

Sirle Arro of the Port of Tallinn (Tallinna Sadam) authority, a part state-owned, part private concern, said that more similar decisions may follow this season.

"The conflict has escalated recently and some ships are still stuck there. The Baltic Sea is an option. Our region is not as crowded with cruise ships as, for example, the Norwegian coast. It is difficult to find berths, but we are a potential region," Arro said.

This would in any case only be a short-term boon, however; in the longer term, crises tend to have a negative impact on tourism, as witnessed during the Covid pandemic and lockdown, whose ramifications are still felt. In the case of the Middle East conflict, rising fuel prices and fears over safety are likely to be factors.

As for this year, 143 cruise ships are due to visit Tallinn, plus a further 11 which will go to Saaremaa. While this is growth year on year, it is still nowhere near the pre-pandemic peak of 334 vessels.

With longer-term trends, Arro also noted cruise companies tend to make many of their decisions two to three years in advance, and there is still cause for optimism depending on the ongoing security situation.

"Two or three years ago there was more uncertainty; now we are getting bookings for 2027, 2028, and 2029. We can see that companies are more willing to schedule visits, and larger ships are on the routes. The outlook is currently positive, and we hope that conflicts and situations will not affect tourism," Arro said.

Additionally, while numbers are greatly down, length of stays have gone up somewhat. Whereas many cruise ships used to just call in in the morning and leave later in the day, leaving tourists just a few hours for a whistle-stop tour of the Old Town, cruise ships are increasingly overnighting in port.

Still, tourist spend is fairly modest: A recent survey showed each individual cruise tourist spends an average of between €50 and €100 per visit, bearing in mind they would also have daily spend in all the other Baltic ports the ship calls in at.

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