Experts: Iran war may lead to much costlier heating season next winter

While heating season is coming to an end for this year, meaning a lightening of the load so far as most households' bills go, thanks to the situation in the Middle East, next year's season may be costlier still, some experts say.
The current conflict, which began with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on the last day of February, followed last summer's strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, and has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has already been followed by a doubling in natural gas prices, which will have repercussions in Estonia.
"The price of gas has increased by about 100 percent. Whereas earlier it seemed that the price might remain around €30 per megawatt-hour, now future forecasts indicate a price level of €55 to €60," said Kalvi Nõu, head of energy trading at Alexela. Nõu added that if exchange prices continue to rise, Alexela will also be forced to increase package tariffs. Margus Kaasik, head of the largest gas seller Elenger, said that some major clients have already seen gas prices rise.

"Prices in March and April were still so-called pre-war prices, lower, and in May they are expected to rise for household customers," Kaasik said.
"Right now, forecasts are at around €60 per megawatt-hour. Whether that turns out to be slightly cheaper or even more expensive will become evident over time," Kaasik said.
The conflict has affected oil and LNG prices too. For instance, the all-time record price at the pump for diesel in Estonia was set just yesterday, Monday,
The U.S. is the world's largest LNG producer, but Qatar, located on the Persian Gulf, is not far behind; however, due to conflict, it has been mostly out of action. Heating expert Alan Vaht said in any case that the gas problem is greater than the oil issue, and the world is only beginning to realize it.
"In fact, the problems are much broader. It is not limited to LNG or difficulties in supplying liquid fuels — there is already a fuel shortage in Australia; petrol stations are empty. Australian farmers have said they may not get to grain this year because fertilizer prices have skyrocketed," Vaht said.

Estonia too may see this happening come the fall.
Since the gas issues may outlast the oil ones, they may affect the heating season to come to a greater extent.
"I am thinking with concern about the coming winter. Currently, gas reserves in Europe are at around 28 percent. Even the previous winter was entered with not particularly full reserves, and this 28 percent is actually one of the lowest levels in recent years," Vaht went on.
The European Commission has called on EU member states to reduce the target for filling gas storage facilities in the coming months in order to ease price pressure caused by the war in the Middle East. The Commission has appealed to the 27 countries, Estonia included, to consider cutting the target level from 90 percent to 80 percent.
Though it denies doing so, Iran at the weekend reportedly targeted the U.S. base on the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) island of Diego Garcia, prompting questions about its capabilities. The missile used is thought to have been an intermediate-range ballistic missile of the kind the U.S. and Soviet Union had scrapped in the 1980s.
Editor: Andrew Whyte








