According to Saks, there are two aspects that must be taken into account when assessing developments in the Middle East. On the one hand, Iran had been steadily building up its military capabilities and was itself preparing for war in a similar manner. This is the main reason why the United States, together with Israel, is currently carrying out strikes.

"At present, Iran is not yet capable of mounting very serious military resistance. But we also have to look at the background. It begins in October 2023, when Hamas launched attacks against Israel clearly with Iran's support. Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis also joined the attacks against Israel. The Houthis have been attacking international shipping since 2023, using weapons supplied purely by Iran and acting on Iran's instructions. In that sense, Iran itself has caused such a massive military operation because it is indeed a direct threat to Israel, which in turn is an important factor for the United States."

At the same time, Saks pointed out that Iran is increasingly trying to expand its influence at a strategic level.

"The question now is whether military action will actually produce results or not. It certainly comes at a cost. And right now Iran is demonstrating just how serious that cost can be. I am convinced that the United States and Israel will not stop their attacks at a point where they have largely succeeded in achieving that Iran is losing its ability to carry out missile strikes. But what has certainly not been achieved is a change of government in Iran. One can be fairly certain that the political regime will not collapse quickly as a result of these attacks."

Saks said a serious problem is that the United States, and evidently Israel as well, were not prepared for the fact that Iran has developed hybrid capabilities. The most visible of these are drones, which can be used to halt oil exports from the Persian Gulf.

"And in strategic terms, this is the biggest challenge for the United States, and here not only European countries but also many Asian countries, including China, are paying a heavy price. In this game, the United States has clearly failed at the moment and we will see whether in the coming days they can somehow turn the situation in their favor."

Saks added that recent frustrated posts by U.S. President Donald Trump are not helping the situation. He was referring to Trump's post last Friday claiming that the United States is close to achieving its objectives and calling on other countries to take the lead in guarding shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. Saks described this as empty bluster.

"In that sense, Trump's, let's say, information war that he is waging on his own is extremely unsuccessful. On the one hand, there is an attempt to somewhat pressure partners into contributing more, but on the other hand there is no real plan or initiative. And this does not concern only Europe — it also concerns countries very important to the United States, such as Japan and South Korea. The Japanese prime minister was just on a state visit to Washington where the United States strongly emphasized how important this is. But for Japan, that relationship is of no value if the United States cannot resolve the issue in the Strait of Hormuz. So in that sense, this (Trump's statement — ed.) is empty bluster. It is not any kind of serious plan and ultimately the United States' key partners are those same Arab countries that are entirely dependent on exporting oil products and gas. If it damages that relationship, it will create an entirely new geopolitical situation."

Speaking about the impact of developments in the Middle East on the Ukrainian front, Saks said there will be no immediate effect, as neither side is now so directly dependent on such external factors.

"Yes, Russia has had serious financial problems and the situation has now improved somewhat for them in those terms. But the deficit in Russia's finances and revenues is too large to say that this relief of a couple of weeks will drastically change the situation. Russia continues to face very serious problems with its army's combat capability and overall military capacity."

According to Saks, Ukraine's combat capability has undoubtedly improved, but not enough to push Russian forces out. Therefore, it can be said that the situation on the front will remain more or less the same in the coming months as it is now.

"For Russia, the current negotiation process with the United States is extremely uncomfortable. Since Iran is their main supporter, if Russia is unable to help Iran, it will weigh heavily on their international prestige. There are two possible outcomes. If Iran were to get a new government, that would be a strategic victory for the United States. But that, in turn, could push Russia into a position where it does not want to make visible concessions in Ukraine, as these would deepen the impression of a strategic defeat. Conversely, Russia might assess its strength on the front more realistically. But all of this is speculation and, ultimately, the relationship between Ukraine and Russia will be determined by when Russia's leadership comes to realize that it can no longer achieve significant and decisive success in the war. Then the conditions for a real agreement will be in place," said Rainer Saks.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!