Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Center, said: "The past week in the full-scale military conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine continues to be characterized by Russian false claims of rapid progress in Ukraine. There has also been an increase in combat intensity and in Ukraine's long-range attacks deep into Russia using unmanned strike systems."

Ukraine's strikes have hit Russian intelligence and military facilities in the St. Petersburg, Voronezh, Taganrog and Krasnodar regions over the past week, the colonel said.

"The attacks have damaged Russian air defense systems, logistics warehouses and other military targets. In Estonia's immediate region, Ukrainian drones struck an oil terminal in St. Petersburg and the dry dock of the Kronstadt ship repair yard in the early morning of June 3," he said, during the weekly overview of events in Ukraine at the Ministry of Defense.

"From Ukraine's point of view, the Baltic Fleet's Steregushchiy-class corvette, which was in the dry dock, constitutes a significant success, as this class of ship is one of the Baltic Fleet's most capable air defense platforms. As a result of the attack, the Baltic Fleet has at present lost one-third of its medium-range air defense capability. This will certainly hamper the air defense capability of the Baltic Fleet and the Kronstadt area in the future," Kiviselg told the press conference.

'Unbearably high' fuel costs

Another important development has been Ukraine's increasingly systematic and effective campaign against Russian logistics, the colonel said.

"This is primarily in the direction of occupied Crimea in southern Ukraine and also in Russia's own rear areas. Ukrainian attacks are mainly directed at supply corridors that connect Russia with occupied Crimea along the Mariupol, Berdiansk, Melitopol and Dzhankoi route," Kiviselg said.

"As a result, fuel shortages have been reported on the Crimean Peninsula and sales restrictions have been imposed: around 20 liters on the basis of coupons. As a consequence, long fuel lines have formed and the price of fuel sold on the black market has risen significantly — converted into euros, the selling price of a liter of 95-octane gasoline there is €3.5–€4.7. This is an unbearably high price for the residents of Crimea," he said.

Kiviselg said that, as a countermeasure to the drone threat, Russia has begun painting its military equipment in rear areas in unusual ways – for example, in black-and-white stripes — in the hope of deceiving drones' artificial intelligence systems and automatic target recognition.

First NATO casualties from a Russian drone

Kiviselg also discussed the Russian drone that struck a residential building in Romania last week.

"As far as is known, this was the first incident in which civilians in a NATO country suffered damage or injuries as a result of a Russian attack drone strike," he said.

The colonel said further incidents cannot be ruled out: "This in turn increases tensions between Russia and NATO, where the growth of hybrid attacks creates the need to respond to them appropriately."

He said Russia spun "two parallel narratives" following the attack.

"First, it is claimed that the drone was not of Russian origin, while at the same time, the possibility is hinted at that similar incidents may occur again. In this way, the Russian side hopes that Western countries will reduce their support for Ukraine in its war of independence," Kiviselg explained.

Russia taking advantage of ammunition shortage

The colonel also said the intensity of combat operations in Ukraine has increased over the past week.

"Russia used 656 drones and 73 missiles in a massive attack against Ukraine on the night of June 2. Russia is actively taking advantage of the situation in which Ukraine has few Patriot systems or little ammunition for them, and Ukrainian cities are being attacked with larger numbers of ballistic and cruise missiles. On that night, a record 33 Iskander ballistic missiles were used, of which Ukrainian air defense managed to shoot down 11. The Russian side also used Tsirkon cruise missiles, of which Ukraine likely did not manage to destroy a single one," he outlined.

Kiviselg said Russia is trying to divert attention away from its lack of success on the front with brutal attacks.

Turning to developments on the frontline, Kiviselg said that this week there were on average 280 combat contacts in a 24-hour period, an increase compared with last week's 261.

A month and a half ago, the number of combat contacts was around 170.

"At the same time, the Russians have lost a significant amount of manpower — over the past week, on average about 1,320 military personnel per 24-hour period," Kiviselg said.

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