I understand the significance of this address. If anywhere, then here, in a university town, the audience is demanding and knowledgeable. All of us, myself included, have many questions about what is happening in the world and at home. I will do my best to explain it as we see it.

Throughout the entire period of Estonia's restored independence, we have never entered the eve of Independence Day as unsettled as we are now. The time is not only unsettled, but alarmingly unpredictable.

Economically, there have been worse times than now, even repeatedly, but what is happening in global security keeps us alert. In 2022, the president's evening Independence Day speech fell on the very day that Russia invaded Ukraine in the morning. In some ways, that was simpler, because the enemy was clear, friends and allies were clear and it was necessary to decide quickly how to help Ukraine. Estonia did so, quickly and commendably, and continues to do so.

Now the situation is different. The past year and especially the past few months have brought fundamental changes. The ideology of "Make America Great Again" in the United States affects the entire world and naturally our daily lives as well. Making America great again has brought with it a distancing from Europe and a strong interest in surrounding territories, particularly Greenland.

There is considerable anxiety. For example, Finland's President Alexander Stubb summarized the current situation using the words: "America is changing and its ideology is at odds with ours."

In the struggle of information and images, there are many who believe that the world order based on shared values and agreements has come to an end. That the rule now is "might makes right." In Estonia as well, voices quickly emerged predicting the inevitable division of the world among the United States, China and Russia, as well as the end of NATO and the European Union. Some advised that we remain a gray mouse in a gray zone and understand that "there's a new sheriff in town."

What does that actually mean? Something deeply humiliating: that we should be a weathervane state, a country in good times and someone's vassal in others. It is a good thing our foremothers and forefathers cannot hear this.

Some suggest we should seek to please Putin as well. The sad peak of such ideas was a change in attitude toward Ukraine among some people, vividly summed up by social media commentator Vallo Veersalu on my Facebook page with the remark: "stick your Ukraine aid up your ass."

Unfortunately, he is not alone. It is noticeable that even some political parties' knees are buckling. A bad sign came from Viljandi where the Ukrainian flag was removed from in front of city government. This was no accident or logistical mistake; it was strategy.

If all such suggestions from recent months were implemented, we would soon be dealing with a very different Estonia. Something resembling Hungary or Georgia, with a great leader perhaps, but without freedoms, reputation, relationships or friends. My position is clear: "that simply will not do," to quote Oskar Luts' "Spring."

This is a time of intensifying value conflicts. To those who consider raw populism to be politics, I suggest looking inward and asking what you truly want. In most cases, it is the desire for a strong hand to impose order. A strong hand is rarely clean and almost without exception it is soon turned against those who longed for it. A populist strong hand, draped in conservatism, also supports dividing the world into spheres of influence.

For Estonia, spheres of influence are an extremely ominous concept. The last such agreement between great powers, the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, was signed on August 23, 1939. Estonia then lost its independence for 50 years.

Are we truly returning to an era of great warships where the larger take from the smaller whatever they want? One thing is clear: we must do everything possible to ensure that we never again end up in Russia's sphere of influence.

During the celebrations of Estonia's centennial, a seminar asked what gift people would give their country. In a discussion among young people, the prevailing thought was that, if they could, they would give back to their country the 50 years lost to Russia. They understood what we have lost — and what we could lose again. It seems many do not.

The ideology of spheres of influence quickly strips small states of their most valuable asset: freedom. Tartu native and head of the Estonian Biobank, Lili Milani, put it precisely in a recent interview: "Freedom is a prerequisite for development. The development of countries and of humanity as a whole is possible only in places where human rights and freedom are guaranteed." Thank you — it would be hard to say it better.

So what should we do?

What we have always done. Defend and develop a free Estonia. I am convinced we will weather these historical upheavals together successfully. I am convinced because we are well trained for crises. Our history, our ancestors and all those who have built the spiritual foundation of our state have prepared us for this.

In difficult times, great principles are worth their weight in gold. They provide direction and are followed by the majority of the people. The Estonian people gave us behavioral guidelines through their major decisions decades ago.

This is how I see it. The Constitution provides the big picture. The European Union and NATO define our major affiliations. This year, for example, we are chairing the Nordic-Baltic Eight, which together constitute the world's 10th-largest economy and stand at the forefront of supporting Ukraine.

We are unequivocally European and have, by an overwhelming margin, chosen our military allies — NATO. Democracy defines our method of governance. National culture builds the foundation of our conduct. We put these principles into practice.

The question, then: is anything happening that would compel us to reconsider these major value principles, to abandon democracy, Europe, NATO and our allies? It is not.

But there are also very different opinions. Martin Ehala, an influential ideologue of conservatism, sees Estonia's future direction quite differently. In the January 27 edition of Postimees, he said: "Estonia should therefore help ensure that Europe undergoes a worldview cleansing similar to that of the U.S., from multiculturalism, the green transition, overregulation, gender ideology, LGBTQI+ propaganda and other excesses of cultural Marxism."

Observers of the public sphere have surely noticed that changing women's roles — steering them primarily toward the maternity ward and the kitchen, lest we immediately die out — has also been floated as an objective.

I quote the legendary scientist Ene-Margit Tiit: "A nation protected by an independent state structure and using its highly developed language does not die out for demographic reasons. This has not happened anywhere in the world in recent centuries."

Political communication generally contains two elements — a promise and a threat. Populism generally uses only the threat. We have experienced this to exhaustion in recent months: if you do not do as we say, you will die out immediately. That will not happen. The Estonian people will not die out. These threats are like a cold gust of wind from the Middle Ages or the Soviet Union. In conceptual terms, they were much the same. It is not liberal democracy that is outdated and dying, but rather the men predicting its demise.

In summary: the world is undergoing major changes and core values are under attack. But this has taught us that everything important to us must be defended. That is what we are doing, more actively than ever. Others are doing so as well.

A week ago, I returned from the Munich Security Conference and was pleased to see an awakened Europe. If MAGA has done anything, it has awakened a sleeping Europe. Thank you for that.

I assure you that those hoping to turn back the clock of history will be disappointed. Europe's large and small democracies will not allow themselves to be turned into pawns in spheres of influence or into dictatorships. That will not happen. It will not happen in Estonia either — do not even hope for it.

Now I turn from the big picture to home. You have probably noticed that in difficult times we all become more easily irritated. It has been said that swearing helps relieve stress, solve difficult tasks and even ease pain. What could be more natural, then, than cursing the government?

Criticism, even sharp criticism, is a natural part of our lives. Canadian writer John Dafoe aptly said that there are only two kinds of governments — intolerable and absolutely intolerable. It is some comfort that it was so with previous governments and will be so with many future ones.

The reality, however, is that two years of COVID and four years of war have battered us severely. We have had to make unpopular decisions and incur higher expenditures that we would not in good times. Above all, this concerns the sharp increase in defense spending to 5.4 percent of GDP.

It is clear that such redistribution in our common purse affects most sectors. But does anyone see alternatives?

I am deeply grateful to the people, both civil servants and many politicians, who have worked extremely hard and demonstrated dedication during this difficult time, making Estonia greater and stronger.

Looking at major trends, there is cause for concern here as well. There was once a popular song by the band Põhja-Tallinn titled "We Still Have Time." At times it seems like an anthem for many. In many matters we have lived as if we had endless time and taken no risks in the turns. New factors, such as those in geopolitics today, prove that time is not endless.

A small state must make decisions quickly. That is what we are trying to do now.

The defense-related decisions must be implemented as swiftly as possible. Let us recall the Nursipalu case. Under ordinary assumptions, we would still be arguing about whether and where, but Moscow does not believe in tears.

Economic philosopher Robert Kitt has identified Estonia's greatest problem in one of his analyses: dreadful pessimism that stifles courage and enterprise. I agree. How is it that when looking at the same thing, two people see entirely different pictures, one seeing everything exclusively in black tones?

Let us look at Estonia's positions in global rankings, all achieved in just 35 years. In the 2025 Press Freedom Index, we ranked second in the world after Norway. In the 2025 Democracy Index, Estonia was classified as a "full democracy." According to the report, only 25 countries worldwide belong to this category and Estonia is one of them.

In the 2025 Innovation Index, we were the leader in the Baltics and ranked ninth in Europe. In the 2025 Quality of Life Index, we ranked 16th worldwide.

Does such development not inspire pride? If, in light of all this, one still sees only dark clouds everywhere, then one must either be wearing blinders, have a poor disposition or elections are approaching. Likely all three.

Nothing easy lies ahead. In 2026, we will likely see movement on a collision course. The desire to go back or forward, east or west, toward closure or openness, will clash. Every Estonian's inner voice tells them what to do and which direction to support.

My vision is clear. Estonia must be aggressively future-oriented. We must build our future on education, science, human quality and rapid responsiveness to change. Pay phones and collective farms are not coming back, no matter how desperately some parties may be waiting for the fax to come in their headquarters. Those times are over. Fear of the future cannot be a successful strategy.

In a February 10 address to opinion leaders at Postimees, one of Estonia's most successful entrepreneurs, Taavi Madiberk, emphasized this as well. He outlined Estonia's key development resources that we could offer the world, from rare earth elements and drones to AI data centers. That is how we must think — not about how to prohibit something.

Small states can either be pioneers of development or lag behind. In Tartu, it is fitting to speak about a future-oriented Estonia, as this city is one of the country's largest reservoirs of intellect. With its universities and spirit, Tartu keeps alive for all Estonia a kind of "Rakett 69" spirit. "Rakett 69" is a television show in which young people engage in an exciting battle of inventions and build a future based on modern science and knowledge.

Just out of curiosity, how many in this hall use artificial intelligence in your daily lives? Raise your hands boldly! You see — it comes like a sea wave. Fleeing it will not save you; ignoring it is like boxing with one hand tied behind your back. The same show-of-hands test just a few years ago would have produced a very different result.

But since we are testing, please also indicate who has a second pension pillar? Again, very many. It is gratifying to note that at least here common sense is not at war. Saving for the future cannot be a wrong strategy. Dear colleagues who turned your backs on saving and dismantled that pillar, I hope you received the message.

A peculiarity of the modern information world is said to be that bad news travels faster than light. Good news travels very slowly or not at all, because who wants to listen?

Yet that is not the whole truth. I am convinced that most people are pleased when others are doing well. I understand, of course, that good news from Toompea may not always be good for everyone, but I will try to share some with you.

Various analyses show positive trends in the national economy. Over time, these will reach households. Consumer confidence has begun to recover. People assess their family's current financial situation more optimistically and look more hopefully toward the future of both their household and the national economy.

The average net salary will grow by a record 10–12 percent as a result of implementing a uniform tax-free minimum. Pensions will increase by 5.3 percent. Employment is near its all-time high. The unemployment forecast is up to 6.7 percent. Inflation has subsided and both commercial banks and the Bank of Estonia forecast inflation of up to 3 percent this year.

An Estonian proverb says that a bitter cold does not last long. That is true now of both the weather and the economy. Both have lasted a long time, but signs of warming and spring are in the air.

It is time as well, because stagnation has exhausted everyone. I know that the crop is not yet in the barn, but without sprouts there will be no harvest. Much depends on what happens in Ukraine, on how Europe awakens and on how our neighbors fare.

Many analyses emphasize that the Nordic countries, the Baltic states together with Poland and Germany, are currently among Europe's centers of thought and action, because we are highly motivated to develop our security and our way of life. That is true — we are motivated and we are acting.

The most good news comes from areas where we undertake something together or where our people give us reason to be proud.

I recall that in the mid-1990s there was serious debate about whether song festivals had become outdated and whether such a form of gathering was needed in a free Estonia. Time has rendered those opinions laughable.

The 2025 Song Festival was immense — in fact, the greatest creator of shared national feeling. Rain or wind, the people gather and sing of our common home. It seems the Song Festival Grounds have even become too small to accommodate everyone who wishes to come together. Thank you for that celebration, in spirit and in life.

Something almost mystical is happening with theater in Estonia as well. Theater tickets are harder to obtain than passes to the Olympic Games. What is going on? Such respect for theater has been cultivated over generations; it does not happen overnight.

The decline during the coronavirus pandemic was overcome in less than two years and new records lie ahead — meaning that, per capita, we are world champions in theater attendance. Theater in Estonia has become a kind of cultural church where not attending is considered poor form. One could even say that hunting for theater tickets has become a sort of national sport.

We have completed extraordinary cultural landmarks. In Rakvere, the music house Ukuaru dedicated to Arvo Pärt is a true architectural gem and has powerfully enriched the regional cultural landscape in both substance and form. The president of the republic presented state decorations there just recently.

Arvo Pärt's jubilee year brought significant attention to Estonia. Our performers appeared around the world, from Carnegie Hall to churches in Germany.

After the Eurovision Song Contest, it happened repeatedly that at European meetings, heads of state would raise their coffee cups during breaks and, smiling, say: "Espresso macchiato!" That song had not passed them by either. Such gentle humor is an especially good bridge-builder and relationship-creator.

Not to mention that for many, Estonia's positive recognition grew as a country with a pleasant sense of humor. My greatest thanks to Tommy Cash and his team for spreading good cheer and painting a far more interesting picture of Estonia. Truly an exceptional story.

Estonia is currently in a state where both state and national cultural life are boiling. Look at the summer calendars. There are days when it is possible to attend nearly twenty events in a single day, most of them worth attending. And there are enough culture-loving people for all of them.

From what has been said, we already understand what a great national asset good humor is. Henry Sildaru's silver medal at the Winter Olympic Games is the best possible gift for Independence Day, bringing joy to all of Estonia. Thank you! Courage, steady nerves and a great will to win are qualities we can all learn from this young man's medal.

With speeches, one must always be prepared afterward for lists of areas not addressed. I could easily make a list dozens of topics long that I would have liked to analyze: electricity prices, education, the defense industry, agriculture, funding shortages across sectors, the upcoming elections and many other important issues.

I chose to speak primarily about large and essential values because the struggle over understanding them is and will remain the main issue for a long time. I also emphasized the importance of present and swift decisions. The Spanish economic philosopher Carlotta Perez, who also spoke in Tallinn, put it well: "Today's success is yesterday's bold idea; tomorrow's success is today's idea." Who would know this better than Estonia? We are reaping the fruits of the bold and unconventional Tiger Leap of the 1990s now and will continue to do so for a long time.

People with good ideas, it is your time! It is the time of those who have not lost faith in Estonia — and the absolute majority have not. I am proud of our people and optimistic that together we can build a future worthy of our nation. I emphasize the word "together." Again, does anyone see another option?

And finally. Every generation is responsible for the future of its grandchildren. Our present responsibility was beautifully captured by a little girl who, when asked where she lives, replied: "We live at our cat's and dog's house."

Our task, then, is to create a life in which Estonia's girls and boys can live happily and peacefully with their families, at their cat's and dog's house. If that is possible, then all is well. Let us do our best to make it happen.

Happy Independence Day of the Republic of Estonia!

Long live Estonia!

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