The U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) is a report by the executive branch that lays out its national security priorities, including international commitments, and how it plans to use U.S. power to achieve them.

The White House's latest, 33-page NSS marks a clear shift from the previous administration, placing sharper scrutiny on Europe's defense spending and what Washington describes as risks stemming from European migration policy, limits on free speech and efforts to suppress political opposition.

Estonian Ambassador to the U.S. Kristjan Prikk said none of this should come as a surprise.

"The U.S. administration has voiced similar expectations throughout its term," he said, adding that many points echo President Donald Trump's campaign messaging.

Liis Mure, defense counselor at the Estonian Embassy in Washington, nonetheless noted that global events often redirect policy, so it can't be expected that everything in the document will play out or be carried out exactly as written.

Mure said the strategy highlights concerns the U.S. believes weaken Europe's ability to remain a steady partner. The document warns that if present trends continue, Europe will be "unrecognizable in 20 years or less," adding that "it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies."

For nearly a year, the Trump administration has argued that Europe's geopolitical weight is fading. The American public, however, still largely views Europe as a key ally.

Arthur, one respondent interviewed by ERR correspondent Laura Kalam in Washington, D.C., said NATO agreements have been protecting both sides of the Atlantic.

"And yeah, I see Europe — the countries of Europe — as allies and friends of the United States," he added. "And we need to be friendlier to them."

"I think they're a better ally than we are — that's about all I got on that," said Angela, another respondent. "I mean, they can't trust us! That's what I saw. That's what I got from that report — is that Europe and the rest of the world is admitting that nobody can trust us."

Eyes on 2027

The strategy also states that the Trump administration wants to end the perception, and prevent the reality, "of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance." U.S. media have reported frustration in Washington with the pace of Europe's defense buildup.

Information circulating last week indicated that by 2027, the U.S. expects Europe to shoulder a larger share of NATO's conventional capabilities. Whether Europe can realistically meet that timeline remains an open question.

Mure said the year matters because Chinese leader Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be capable of taking Taiwan by force by 2027. In such a scenario, she said, the U.S. would prioritize deterring a conflict in Asia — and might need to deploy significant forces there.

If a crisis broke out in Europe at the same time, she noted, some "very critical" U.S. capabilities might not be available.

"And we know that Russia and China already maintain a strategic relationship," she added.

Europe cannot fully replace key U.S. assets such as long-range precision strike systems or certain air and naval capabilities, the Estonian defense counselor acknowledged. But that does not mean Europe can't do more.

She said Washington expects to see "very serious steps" soon toward Europeans providing some of those capabilities themselves, and that expectation should not be underestimated.

Experts say the situation is not cause for panic, but acknowledge that transatlantic relations are shifting.

Prikk said it's no help if Europe describes itself only in worried or anxious terms. "We should be pragmatic and do what's right, in the right way," he said.

High expectations

Over the weekend, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reaffirmed that the U.S. will support allies who invest in their own defense. He singled out the Baltic states for praise.

Mure said this reinforces that Estonia has been "doing the right thing."

Recent polling shows U.S. public support for NATO remains high, but not unconditional.

"I do think that in order for the United States to stop spending so much money on war and so-called 'defense,' we have to let the Europeans put in more effort and money into defending themselves," said Ken, another interview respondent in Washington, D.C.

"However, we still need to be an ally," he continued. "And if Russia invades Europe, we need to honor the NATO agreement of 'An attack on one is an attack on all.'"

The latest U.S. National Security Strategy no longer labels Russia a direct security threat or enemy. The Kremlin responded saying the document aligns closely with Russia's own views.

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