Experts: Europe must count on changed US security policy
The U.S.'s new security strategy doesn't spell anything dramatic for Estonia, but experts say it signals a clear shift in American foreign policy.
The Trump administration's new 33-page national security strategy includes sharp criticism of both the domestic politics of European countries and NATO expansion plans.
According to Foreign Ministry Secretary General Jonatan Vseviov, NATO enlargement has been the West's most successful strategic tool and Estonia continues to firmly support Ukraine's membership.
Asked whether Estonia should be concerned about the U.S. criticizing NATO enlargement policy, Vseviov replied that if worrying would help, then one might as well worry — but instead, he recommends action.
"Take action in support of Ukraine, take action in defining and implementing our own policies. That's a much smarter course than simply worrying," Vseviov said.
He added that the new U.S. security strategy does not signal any dramatic change for Estonia.
Raimond Kaljulaid, a member of the Riigikogu National Defense Committee, also said there is no need to fear NATO's collapse, since the U.S. administration has consistently emphasized the alliance's importance. However, it is clear that the U.S.–Europe relationship has shifted. Americans are increasingly focused on the Indo-Pacific region, viewing China, rather than Russia, as an existential threat.
"They're concentrating more and more on that region, so it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone if that eventually affects the U.S. military presence in Europe. Naturally, for us that's not a welcome development. It's our job to convince the Americans that European security matters to them too — but at the end of the day, reality is what it is," Kaljulaid said.
According to the strategy document, Russia's actions in Ukraine remain a core security issue, but the U.S. also seeks to move toward strategic stability with the Kremlin. Marek Kohv, a research fellow at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), said that contractual relations will become increasingly important for the U.S. administration.
"Russia is clearly identified in this new strategy as a potential partner in various deals, so this time around, the document does not explicitly label Russia as a direct security threat," Kohv said.
He added that it is a positive development that the U.S. positions are now spelled out in black and white, as this gives Europeans even more incentive to strengthen their own defense and, if necessary, effectively substitute for the U.S.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski, Mari Peegel
