Norstat poll: Social Democrats inching upward
Support for the three most popular parties remained largely unchanged, while the Social Democratic Party gained 1.1 percentage points over the past week.
According to the latest results, 29.1 percent of eligible voters support Isamaa, 20.9 percent back the Center Party and 14.3 percent support the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).
Isamaa, which holds the lead, is 8.2 percentage points ahead of the second-place Center Party. EKRE, in third place, trails the Center Party by 6.6 points.
Following the top three are the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 13.8 percent, the Reform Party with 10.9 percent, Parempoolsed with 6.9 percent and Eesti 200 with 1.7 percent. SDE's support rose by 1.1 percentage points over the past week.
In total, 12.6 percent of respondents support the coalition parties, while 78.1 percent back parties in opposition in the Riigikogu. Support for the coalition remains very low overall.
The latest aggregated results reflect the polling period from November 3 to 30, during which 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were surveyed.
The Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) and polling firm Norstat Eesti AS present a four-week moving average, meaning the sample includes at least 4,000 respondents. Voters without a party preference are excluded when calculating party support percentages.
The maximum margin of error depends on the size of the largest group. In this case, Isamaa had the largest share of support (29.1 percent), resulting in a margin of error of ±1.67 percentage points. Margins are smaller for other parties — for example, ±0.47 points for Eesti 200. This method of calculating party support percentages smooths out fluctuations caused by statistical variance or short-term events.
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Editor: Valner Väino, Marcus Turovski
