"There would have to be one leader [of the dispute]. The opponent may have low ratings, but the one they oppose need to have a very high rating – then it would  possible [to win from opposition]," Voog said on Friday in answer to a question about why causing a dispute based on a conflict of values or culture would not benefit either EKRE or the Reform Party. 

When asked whether the two parties would be unable to stir up a major conflict if Isamaa, the party with the highest level of support, stayed out of the confrontation, Voog said they would.

According to Voog, the latest Kantar Emor party ratings results published on Friday, which are based on a survey conducted between November 3 and 12, reflect voters' reactions to the results of the local elections. "Rather, this is a reaction to the election results without knowing what these results will bring, and what compositions [will lead the local governments]," Voog said.

The rise of Isamaa and the Social Democratic party (SDE) since the October poll may be related to their relatively good results in the local elections, Voog noted.

At the same time, EKRE and Isamaa's ratings are moving in opposite directions – when one rises, the other's rating usually falls, Voog continued. "They are connected through their electorate," he said.

"As for the Center Party, they had an increase just before the elections and have now been at the 18-20 percent level for the last four months. EKRE has been hovering somewhere between 12 and 15 percent in the meantime. They have been there for a long time – in fact for a whole year now. And when their ratings are lower, Isamaa's are usually higher, as their voter bases largely overlap," he explained.

Voog does not believe Isamaa's position could be affected by the recent case of Oleg Bessedin, who was detained on suspicion of activities related to Tallinn coalition partner the Center Party, nor by the fact that Isamaa did not win the mayor's seat in Tartu despite achieving the best election results there.

"Isamaa has now been the leading party in Estonia for two years, and in that time it has never fallen below second or third place in the national ratings. That is a long period – only the Reform Party has managed to do that before. Even the Center Party, when it was at the top of the ratings, only managed to stay there for a maximum of six months, but Isamaa has now managed to do so for two years," said Voog.

Success in Tallinn could further boost Center Party support

Commenting on the Center Party taking second place in the latest rankings, Voog pointed out that the party's position has become clearer to non-ethnic Estonian voters.

"Their support there is close to 70 percent, or at least two-thirds. They haven't had that for a long time, since Jüri Ratas's term in office, almost seven or eight years ago," he said. "They have achieved this, and it helps keep their rating stable, somewhere around 20 percent."

At the same time, support for the Center Party among ethnic Estonians has fluctuated, and was down slightly in November's poll.

"They will only rise if something happens among (ethnic) Estonians that could improve their image. Perhaps that hope lies with the Tallinn coalition – that this coalition with Isamaa could influence the Center Party a little," said Voog.

In Voog's view, the Center Party's decision to cede the Tallinn mayor's seat to Isamaa for two years ought to be seen as an attempt to present a more nationalist image.

Reform can count on economic growth

Voog noted that, as the party of the prime minister, support for the Reform Party, depends largely on the economic climate. Reform's ratings could start to rise again if the economy begins to recover.

"If the positive signs do start to grow – and there are some indications of this – and if consumer confidence really does start to rise next year, if that trend continues and confidence is restored at the beginning of next year and people feel this increase in income, then that could be a positive scenario. It does not mean that it would be reflected in the Reform Party's ratings immediately, but they would have the opportunity to start increasing their ratings," said Voog.

He also pointed out that consumer confidence is already slightly higher in October and November than the low levels seen in the summer and over previous years.

Voog considers it possible that the Reform Party's support levels may not recover in the near future despite positive developments in the economy. However, he also pointed to the example of Isamaa, whose ratings were very low some time ago.

"They have a long history, they have enjoyed high levels of support, and that could be restored. Isamaa also had a long period of low popularity, when their ratings fluctuated at around 4-5 percent. In August two years ago, after the scandal with the Pere Endowment Fund, it was said that this was the end for the party. But it wasn't, and they have risen beyond expectations,"  Voog said.

In his view, Reform could not do the same as Isamaa, when the party replaced leader Helir-Valdor Seeder with Urmas Reinsalu, who has adopted a completely different rhetoric.

Voog pointed out that the Reform Party has already replaced its party leader fairly recently, when  Kristen Michal took over from Kaja Kallas.

"Then taxes were raised after Kristen Michal became prime minister. He could have come in when it was known that taxes would start to fall, but another change now would be questionable," Voog noted.

SDE could have risen further Tallinn

Voog also pointed out that the Social Democratic Party (SDE) has risen in the polls since being kicked out of the government coalition it previously formed with Reform and Eesti 200 at the beginning of the year. "Back then, their rating was 12 percent, now it's somewhere between 14 and 16 percent – that's a bit higher."

Voog believes the reason for this is the clarification of the SDE's position.

"Before, they were part of the coalition, and then they were kicked out, and some of the responsibility that the coalition had taken on fell on them as well. Now they have clearly become an opposition party. And one factor that prevented their ratings from growing even more was that the four-party coalition [in Tallinn] did not come about, or at least has not come about yet. If it had come about in Tallinn, they would certainly have had a chance to significantly increase their ratings right away. But that has not happened."

The SDE rose in popularity in Tallinn in July, when the Reform Party left the coalition with the SDE, Isamaa, and Eesti 200, having previously hinted at the possibility of forming a different coalition with the Center Party, Voog noted.

"After that, the SDE showed themselves to be a more stable force. [Their rating reached] 19 percent, fell a little after that, and now in November it is at 20 percent. This high level was already reached achieved in July – in the middle of summer," he said.

Parempoolsed consolidates position

Finally, Voog turned to Parempoolsed, who with its stable 8-9 percent rating, he believes will make it into the Riigikogu at the next elections.

" [They have] very stable support and they managed to realize the overall popularity of the party's brand in Tallinn even better than expected. /---/ They showed that they have the ability to spend on advertising campaigns, even though they did not receive much funding from the state. They certainly proved to their potential voters that they are a party that can get things done," said Voog.

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