Just a glance at the results of the most recent local elections, coupled with current opinion polls, is enough to reveal which parties currently dominate Estonian politics. These are the conservative parties: Isamaa and the Center Party. If we add EKRE, currently in a weaker position, to the mix, these three parties now enjoy the approval of nearly two-thirds of citizens and collectively received almost half of the votes nationwide in the last election.

By comparison, the forces aligned with the liberal wing — Reform Party, the Social Democrats and Eesti 200 — garnered just one-fifth of the vote in the last local elections and, according to current ratings, are managing only slightly more than 25 percent support.

Looking at these numbers, there's little doubt about who is likely to win the Riigikogu elections a year and a half from now or the ideological direction Estonian politics is likely to tilt toward afterward.

Still, it's worth taking a step back before making sweeping conclusions. Even a year and a half is a long time in politics. History is full of examples from democratic countries where a party long seen as a favorite ended up losing due to some completely unexpected event or because it made a particularly foolish and unforgivable mistake of its own.

What makes the "conservative triumph" narrative especially problematic is the premature prediction that a conservative shift in Estonian politics after 2027 would be something permanent and long-term.

True, the Reform Party's decline gives reason for such speculation. Reform politicians themselves, of course, believe this slump is temporary and that within a few years they'll reclaim their usual dominant position on Estonia's political landscape. I doubt that. Estonian society has changed significantly over the past five years and the "squirrel party" itself has transformed to such an extent that its era of hegemony appears to be over.

Still, it would be wrong to assume that if Reform loses its dominant position, Isamaa or some other party will simply step in to replace it. I argue that Isamaa, the Center Party and EKRE are not yet ready to fill the large shoes left by Reform. What lies ahead is more likely an era of turbulence, not a triumph or lasting dominance by conservatives. In this turbulent period, sometimes the conservatives will win elections, sometimes the liberals; we'll see both right- and left-leaning governments. In other words, our political landscape will begin to resemble that of our neighbors, like Finland and Lithuania, where ideological poles shift with each election cycle.

Why do I think Isamaa, the Center Party and EKRE won't be able to step into Reform's empty shoes? If we analyze why the Reform Party managed to dominate for nearly two decades, it's because — up until recent years — they were the best at tapping into the deepest fears and desires of the Estonian voter.

First, the fear of Russia. Since the Bronze Night events of 2007, the Reform Party has managed to project the image that it is the most capable party when it comes to countering threats from the Kremlin.

Second, the aspiration for prosperity. For decades, Reform successfully sold the myth that their market-liberal economic model was the key to Estonia's success and that no other party could match their economic expertise.

Third, the desire for social security. Reform didn't just convince voters that they were best at delivering economic growth; they also offered a basic level of social safety — decent pensions, parental benefits and largely free education and healthcare.

In short, by voting for the Reform Party, the average Estonian voter felt assured that Russians would be kept away from power, the economy would function and a basic social safety net would be in place.

So the question is: has Isamaa shown any indication that it can fulfill those three fundamental needs of the Estonian voter — simultaneously and even better than Reform once did? Not really. Let them come to power first and then prove it.

If Isamaa truly manages to deliver that level of governance and masterful image-building, then we can talk seriously about a conservative triumph and lasting hegemony. Until then, we'd do better to fasten our seatbelts and prepare for a period of turbulence — not a conservative era just yet.

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