Norstat poll suggests post-elections trends leveling off
The latest weekly poll shows no major changes in party support, according to the Institute for Societal Studies and survey company Norstat Eesti AS.
According to results published Wednesday, 29.4 percent of eligible voters support Isamaa, 21.1 percent back the Center Party and 14.1 percent favor the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).
Support for Isamaa, which remains in the lead, has stabilized over the past week, halting the party's post-local elections rise. The Center Party, in second place, also saw its upward trend stop, with its support falling by 1 percentage point. EKRE, in third place, had been losing support after the local elections, but the latest figures suggest that decline has also leveled off.
Trailing the top three are the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 12.7 percent, the Reform Party (11.1 percent), Parempoolsed (7.3 percent) and Eesti 200 (1.9 percent). Parempoolsed has increased its support by 2.1 percentage points over the past four weeks, marking its highest rating to date in Norstat polling.
"Most of the post-local election trends have come to a halt," Norstat commented.
A total of 13 percent of respondents support the governing coalition parties, while 77.3 percent back opposition parties currently in the Riigikogu.
The latest aggregated results reflect the survey period from October 27 to November 23, with data collected in four waves: October 27–November 2, November 3–9, November 10–16 and November 17–23.
A total of 4,000 voting-age Estonian citizens were surveyed. Voters without a party preference were excluded when calculating relative party support. The maximum margin of error depends on the size of the largest group; in this survey, that group was Isamaa supporters, yielding a margin of error of ±1.66 percentage points. Margins of error for other parties are smaller — for instance, ±0.5 percentage points for Eesti 200.
To ensure a representative sample, Norstat conducted the survey using a combined methodology of phone and online interviews, with the majority of responses collected via phone. The results were weighted to match the demographic distribution of eligible voters based on key sociodemographic indicators.
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Editor: Mait Ots, Marcus Turovski
