Lately, there's been a lot of talk in Estonia about the public's low level of trust in the government. And indeed, trust in the government has declined recently. Opposition politicians, unsurprisingly, are especially fond of pointing this out. But it seems they too are rather unclear on what trust in the government actually means and how it is measured. So, let me explain.

In political sociology surveys, people's trust in institutions is often measured. Respondents are typically asked to rate, on a ten-point scale, how much they trust institutions such as the government, the Riigikogu, the president, the police, the rescue services, the defense forces, as well as the media or political parties. This is a fairly standardized question, which allows us to compare results across different surveys quite reliably. We also have a solid amount of data showing how trust in the government in Estonia has evolved since the beginning of the century and how it compares to other countries.

Trust in the government

Trust in the government or in state institutions more broadly provides us with crucial insight: to what extent people feel that the state operates fairly, competently and in their interest. A decline in institutional trust is a significant warning sign, as it indicates that people are distancing themselves from the state and its policies. This can predict a lower willingness to participate in elections and a greater readiness or at least approval of alternative forms of civic engagement, such as protesting, striking or civil disobedience. To some extent, low trust in state institutions can even influence tax behavior.

A public opinion survey commissioned by the Government Office shows that as of this September, only 30 percent of Estonian residents trusted or somewhat trusted the government. Trust in the government is lower among middle-aged respondents, those with less education, members of other ethnic groups and men. However, at this point, there is no longer a single demographic group in which trust in the government outweighs distrust.

From an international perspective, 30 percent may not seem catastrophic — many developed democracies are accustomed to such figures. The concerning part is that Estonia has not traditionally been among those countries. In Estonia, it has generally been the norm for about half the population to trust the government.

Party support

From time to time, it seems that politicians confuse the government's trust rating with another figure — one that is even lower and even more eagerly cited: the combined rating of the coalition parties. Several Estonian polling firms regularly measure party preferences by asking people which party they would vote for if Riigikogu elections were held today. In this type of poll, the two coalition parties — Reform Party and Eesti 200 — currently have a combined support of just 13 percent. That is catastrophically low in terms of those parties' political futures. Two and a half years ago, in the Riigikogu elections, 44.5 percent of voters supported them.

So where does the difference between these two figures come from? How is it possible that 30 percent of residents say they trust the government, while only 13 percent would vote for the coalition parties? The gap arises because there's a significant number of voters who would prefer to vote for a party currently in opposition, but still believe that, in principle, constitutional institutions are fair, competent and act in the public interest. After all, the government is a broader concept than just the cabinet made up of politicians. A person can trust the government in principle even if they would prefer to see a different party in power.

In fact, one could argue that it's a sign of a healthy democracy when citizens feel they can trust their constitutional institutions even if they don't agree with those currently governing. When party preference and trust in the government start to align too closely, it can be a sign of high levels of political polarization.

New gloomy era

So, the difference between these two figures isn't exactly surprising. One might just as well wonder why even fewer people trust the Riigikogu than trust the government. According to the same survey, 29 percent of Estonian residents say they trust or somewhat trust the Riigikogu, while the combined rating of the parties currently represented in the Riigikogu hovers around 90 percent. Fine, let's subtract those who say they have no party preference — but even then, well over half of respondents remain.

Where I do agree with opposition MPs is that the credibility of both the government and the Riigikogu is, in the context of Estonian political culture, abysmally low right now. Media coverage and criticism from the opposition certainly help fuel this perception, but it's also clear that the coalition parties have not done enough to explain their policy direction or to ease the public's sense of uncertainty.

One can only hope that something in the government's approach will change or that a cabinet reshuffle or the next election will shift the picture. If not, then as a society, we have unfortunately stepped into a new political era, and it's not a step forward. Regardless of who happens to be in power.

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