Voter turnout in Estonia's local elections could top 60 percent
Local elections this year are drawing more active participation than in 2021, with turnout across Estonia projected at 60–64 percent, says pollster Kantar Emor's Aivar Voog.
Estonia's record for local elections remains from 2009, when 60.6 percent of eligible voters hit the polls. Tallinn's municipal record also dates to that year, with turnout in the capital reaching 65.7 percent.
"At least in Tallinn — and also nationwide — this year's elections are closer to 2013 and 2009 levels," said Voog, survey chief at Kantar Emor. He noted that in previous years, particularly 2017 and 2021, voters of other nationalities in Tallinn were unsure who to support, which suppressed turnout.
Based on current paper ballot activity, Voog said residents of Lasnamäe and other nationalities are driving higher participation. "This reflects their significantly greater engagement," he added.
Voog said surveys tracking potential voter turnout since July show that among other nationalities, participation is much higher than in 2021. Turnout, however, has fluctuated.
"In early September, other nationalities were slightly less active," he noted. "But now, at the end of September and beginning of October, [voter participation] is very high again."
According to these surveys, he added, nationwide turnout "could even exceed 60 percent, with even higher levels in Tallinn."
Calculating based on current actual activity, Voog said voter turnout on Election Day this Sunday is expected to remain strong.
"Significantly higher than in 2021 and 2017 — something close to what we saw in 2013," he explained. "In 2009, the absolute number of voters was 620,000, since the electorate was almost 100,000 larger than it is this year."
Voog added, however, that the higher activity of voters among other nationalities stands out only in Tallinn.
"Activity in Ida-Viru County remains the same as in previous years," he said, noting that even when less active groups such as Russian citizens are excluded, formerly active voters have become more passive as well.
By midday Friday, 25.3 percent of Estonia's eligible voters had already cast their ballots.
Early and online voting in this year's local elections began on Monday. Click here for more info on how to vote on or ahead of Election Day this Sunday, October 19.
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Editor: Mari Peegel, Aili Vahtla
