Over 19 percent of eligible voters had already cast their vote in the capital as of Wednesday evening, ahead of the national turnout of a little over 17 percent at that time, on day three of the advance voting period.

Priit Lello, chairman of the Tallinn Electoral Committee, said this may indicate that people are getting more plugged into politics and want to have a say in local affairs.

"At some polling stations in Lasnamäe, there have been more voters, though there haven't been any major changes in the way elections are organized there. I think this is due to higher turnout. There haven't been long queues — there were some at the opening of polling stations. People are coming earlier, though in our view these queues aren't unusual," Lello told "Aktuaalne kaamera."

There has also been a somewhat higher turnout among Russian-speaking voters, Lello added.

Kantar Emor research expert Aivar Voog meanwhile noted that spring's constitutional amendment, which stripped the right to vote of residents of third countries, would not exert a massive impact on voting patterns nationwide, since this demographic tended to engage much less in politics.

"Around 70,000 Russian and other foreign citizens have been removed from the voter list, but they were the more passive group, whose turnout was about three times lower than that of Estonians. That alone actually helps to raise the overall turnout percentage compared with previous elections," he reasoned.

Otherwise the relatively high turnout in the initial days of advance voting, which started Monday, is in part explained by how convenient voting is, either online or at the select polling stations open nationwide during the advance period.

This trend has risen over the years, he noted, while a fall in the incidence of undecided or floating voters has contributed, as has Russian-speaking voters tending to be clear on who they wish to vote for, Voog said.

Tarmo Jüristo, director of think tank SALK, said that a longer-term fall in turnout among the Russian-speaking population has clarified who this demographic is likely to vote for.

"In previous years that percentage was clearly higher than now, and the Center Party has benefited the most from this decline. In short, it seems that the Russian-speaking voter has found the party that stands up for their rights. The main issues have been Estonian-language education, voting rights, and the Russian Orthodox Church," Jüristo said.

Other factors which can affect turnout include the weather, which this week has been reasonably mild for the time of year, and also next week's half-term school break, which could mean more people away from home than usual, even the week before. These effects will not be significant, however, he said.

Voter turnout at the last local elections in 2021 stood at 54.5 percent.

Estonian citizens whose first language is Russian, along with stateless persons resident in Estonia, who in practice are mostly Russian-speaking, are the demographic groups referred to above, along with Russian speakers who hold citizenship of any EU country who reside here.

Russian and Belarusian citizens resident in Estonia cannot vote at local elections, following a constitutional amendment which passed in spring and followed security concerns about this demographic being able to vote.

Overall voter turnout at the 2021 local elections was 54.5 percent.

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