Will the meeting in Alaska on Friday definitely go ahead or are we still talking about the possibility of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meeting there?

I don't think it makes sense to speculate ahead of time. The likelihood that the meeting won't happen is smaller than the likelihood that it will. The fact is that Trump has opened his doors to a war criminal, so it's likely the meeting will, in fact, take place in Alaska on Friday.

So what is Donald Trump's real underlying reasoning here? Why is he essentially inviting the murderer of the Ukrainian people to visit him?

In some ways, I don't think this is unexpected, because ever since his election campaign, Trump has been talking about how he would end this war and he hasn't really changed his stance or position. He wants to do everything possible to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. The question is simply what to use to achieve that, what steps to take so that the war's end truly comes in a way that is just and [ensures] peace, above all, from Ukraine's perspective and from the perspective of the United States.

However, I have the sense that this desire to broker or achieve peace at any cost has led him into a situation where he has, to a large extent, allowed himself to be influenced by Putin. I feel that Putin has managed to seize a clear initiative in the diplomatic arena and is in a position where, once he arrives on American soil, he can ask for anything he wants.

Does this mean that Donald Trump's — and, let's say, his administration's — understanding of what peace would mean in ending this war is completely different from that of the Ukrainians, or is it not so different?

I think that if we look at the messages coming out since February, there's been increasing talk about what parameters Ukrainians, for example, might have to accept in order to end this war. One issue that has always been present is the at least de facto recognition of the occupied and illegally annexed territories as belonging to Russia. That message has also resurfaced now, after Special Envoy Witkoff's visit to Moscow.

We've been hearing a lot of confusing information from there about what exactly Russia's demands are, but on the other hand, we know that Russia has not changed its strategic goal. It still wants to destroy the Ukrainian state entirely. At the moment, it doesn't really need a pause in the fighting, but it's also not against one if it can use it to further weaken and divide the West.

Does Donald Trump have any kind of leverage that would allow him, during the talks in Alaska, to steer Russia toward the kind of peace the Ukrainians want — namely, Russia's complete withdrawal from all territories?

Of course, there is leverage. The levers are there, but Trump has not wanted to use them. If we think back, just last Friday he issued yet another rhetorical ultimatum to Putin, promising tough sanctions both directly against Russia and against those who, for example, buy oil from Russia.

What happened? We don't even hear about the United States imposing any additional trade tariffs on Russia. That is not how you negotiate with Russia. That is not how you put Russia in a position where it would have an interest in peace. And today, we can say that Russia is not interested in peace. It is demanding everything and more than it has already managed to seize. It is clear that Ukraine cannot agree to that; for Zelenskyy, it would be political suicide.

Speaking of Zelenskyy, in addition to the fact that we have no certainty the meeting will take place, we also don't actually know whether Ukraine will be included, and if so, in what form. If that offer were made to Zelenskyy, what would be the decisive factors for the president in weighing whether to go or not?

One thing to keep in mind about this meeting is that Ukraine will not be the only topic on the agenda. They will likely discuss bilateral relations and possibly other issues as well. It's entirely possible that Russia will demand not only the lifting of sanctions but also the restoration of good political and economic ties and perhaps even the withdrawal of NATO units from the eastern flank.

As for Zelenskyy, there's a great deal of uncertainty. When Trump announced that the meeting would take place, he made no mention of Zelenskyy or his possible attendance. At the moment, there is indeed very active diplomatic activity underway. European leaders have made it very clear to the United States that it's not possible to talk about Ukraine without Ukraine, nor to decide or achieve any sort of agreement that would actually be enforceable. The question now is, first, how and in what manner Trump would invite Zelenskyy, and second, whether Putin would even agree to meet with Zelenskyy.

Putin considers Zelenskyy, in his own words, a clown and doesn't see him as a legitimate president at all. Given Russia's current rhetoric and positions, is a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy even possible?

I think that the meeting could take place, but the two sides have completely opposite views on how the war should end. Russia is demanding Ukraine's capitulation. Ukraine will not capitulate. Period. That's it. At the moment, there is simply no reason for Russia to be interested in peace.

Europe seems to be making diplomatic efforts to ensure that Ukraine is not discussed or its fate decided without its presence. But what form could that presence take if the meeting is still going to be between just two men, Trump and Putin?

President Zelenskyy has made it unequivocally clear that ceding territory is off the table and I would say that this is one of Russia's key demands. Because of that, I don't see how this meeting could produce even a minimal common ground that would yield a positive outcome, at least from the United States' perspective. But that is by no means a given that such an outcome could be achieved at all.

Should we be afraid, in the sense that Trump might come back from that meeting pushing Ukraine to give up some territory or forcing it to agree to a cease-fire in some humiliating way?

Unfortunately, what we're seeing is that the pressure is falling primarily on Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia have not been tightened and Ukraine has not been given the kind of weaponry that could bring about a significant shift on the battlefield or at least stabilize the front from Ukraine's perspective. Once again, the sanctions that were promised never materialized. And how can anyone expect to stop an aggressor like Russia with anything other than force, whether economic force or actual military power? Believing or hoping that negotiations with a war criminal, who should be sitting before the Hague tribunal instead of meeting in Alaska, could be a solution is unrealistic.

Unfortunately, this meeting carries many dangerous risks. First, they could agree on something that we in Europe would find deeply unfavorable. That could lead to a cooling or even a clear rift in U.S.-European relations, which is very likely something Putin is trying to achieve there. Second, Ukraine could end up losing U.S. support if Trump concludes that he tried to bring about peace, but Ukraine refused to go along with it.

From the perspective of Europe or Ukraine, what would be the best possible outcome from this meeting?

The best outcome would be if the meeting didn't happen at all.

But if it does take place and Trump and Putin end up sitting at the same table?

The best outcome would be for Trump to stand up and say, "I can't get the peace I want here, so I am indeed going to impose those sanctions on Russia and give aid to Ukraine." But can we realistically imagine that happening? It's very doubtful this meeting will end that way.

Most likely, it will end with nothing substantial. Perhaps they might agree on something related to U.S.-Russia diplomatic or technical issues, maybe on something else, but in the bigger picture? I don't fear that it will necessarily lead to the kind of results we saw in Munich in 1938. Those parallels may be too bold here. Still, there's no denying that the posture of the current U.S. administration has not created the conditions needed for this war to end with a just peace at this time.

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