EDF colonel: Ukraine's frontline situation difficult without negotiations breakthrough
Russian forces have made slight advances against Ukrainian positions and without a breakthrough in peace talks acceptable to Ukraine, tough defensive battles will continue in the coming months, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the EDF Intelligence Center.
The main focus of Russian attacks remains in Donetsk Oblast, along the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad axis where the area is now effectively encircled by Russian forces, leaving only relatively narrow corridors for Ukrainian units to receive logistical support, much of which is now being delivered by air, said Col. Ants Kiviselg.
"Ukraine's supply routes are under heavy pressure and it won't be possible to hold those populated areas for much longer," he added.
Kiviselg noted that last week, Russia also advanced on other fronts: toward Vovchansk and Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, toward Siversk in Donetsk Oblast and toward Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. One reason for the increased Russian attacks, he said, is deteriorating weather conditions, which limit Ukraine's ability to use drones.
"Small Russian units can now approach Ukrainian positions covertly and reach behind them. Drones play a crucial role in Ukraine's defense operations and poor visibility hampers their use. This puts Ukraine under heavy pressure at the front and Russia has managed to carry out limited tactical advances against Ukrainian positions. Russia also holds advantages in manpower, artillery, ammunition and equipment," said Kiviselg.
Ukraine's situation remains difficult and the course of peace talks before the onset of winter is especially important, he emphasized.
"If a breakthrough acceptable to Ukraine is not achieved, we assess that the frontline will remain highly strained and Ukrainian forces will have to fight intense defensive battles in the coming months," Kiviselg said.
Before winter, Russia has typically targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
"In the second half of November, all major thermal and hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine had sustained damage. However, Ukrainian authorities have managed to stock up on spare parts and intensive repair efforts are ongoing to prevent the collapse or fragmentation of the power system," Kiviselg said.
He noted that the situation is particularly serious in Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Chernihiv oblasts where blackouts could occur at any moment. Continued outages are expected throughout the winter and Ukrainian businesses will be forced to limit their electricity consumption, Kiviselg added.
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Editor: Marko Tooming, Marcus Turovski
