Donald Trump has already suggested the need for yet another summit, depending on the outcome of Friday's meeting in Alaska: meaning, will Vladimir Putin show any sign of willingness to agree to a (weapons) ceasefire or not.

Ukraine and its European allies are allegedly cautiously optimistic, having heard out Trump's positions and intentions. Even so, there's no basis whatsoever to believe that Putin wants to end military operations, let alone sign a peace deal, if the aggressor state Russia's conditions are not met — if Moscow cannot declare victory over Ukraine, the collective Western world and the rules-based international order.

Comparing Ukraine to Palestine and equating the occupied territories with the West Bank is glaringly inappropriate. Ukraine is recognized by the entire world, including Russia, and exists within legal borders. Ukraine was even one of the founding members of the United Nations, back as an SSR.

Thus, in this scenario, Russia positions itself as Israel, presenting Ukrainians to Americans as Palestinians... This shows how distorted a world Putinist Russians live in, and they're trying to sell this distorted view to others as well.

It appears that Putin's goal is de facto recognition of the territories occupied in Ukraine as fully under Russian control. This is ostensibly Russia's "compromise," since it does not demand legal — de jure — recognition.

For Moscow, this outcome would of course be satisfactory, because even de facto recognition acknowledges the "established reality." The annexation ("joining") of five Ukrainian oblasts is also neatly enshrined in Russia's constitution.

Ukraine's compromise, in this scenario, would be to relinquish the occupied territories de facto, but not de jure. Whether this would be based on the front lines at the time the ceasefire takes effect or a slightly adjusted line is another question. Russia is seeking control over the occupied oblasts in their entirety.

Clearly, Ukraine's compromise would be an enormous concession in the name of a ceasefire, compared to Russia's "compromise." It would involve giving up a fifth of its territory to end the bloodshed, even if not legally.

Would Ukraine accept this, given that it would not, according to the circulating interpretations, need to amend its constitution? It's difficult to say. Most Ukrainians want peace, and a smaller portion is willing to cede territory. But for the troops and the families of fallen soldiers, the question would remain: what was all the fighting for, and why were so many lives sacrificed over three and a half or even 11 and a half years?

Deal risks leeway for Russian recovery, rearmament

If the terms of a ceasefire and a subsequent peace deal mean that Russia receives de facto recognition for occupying a fifth of Ukraine through aggression — that the aggressor escapes any accountability for acts of aggression and committed war crimes, and even partially escapes from Western sanctions and political isolation — then Putin's Russia could rightly declare victory.

Military operations in Ukraine would effectively be paused. Ukraine might be given some guarantees — which ultimately matter little if NATO membership isn't involved — but Russia would gain more leeway for rapid recovery and rearmament. It goes without saying that such an outcome would lay the groundwork for Russia's next aggression.

Just a few days ago, there was talk of the just and lasting peace sought by Ukraine and Europe. A just peace is based on international law. A lasting peace does not allow the aggressor to recover and launch a new aggression.

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