Estonian defense official: Russia advancing in Ukraine despite everything
Gert Kaju, director of the Defense Readiness Department at the Ministry of Defense, said that, more broadly, the first week of August has been shaped most by the anticipation of talks in Moscow triggered by an ultimatum from U.S. President Donald Trump — and their aftermath. Russia, meanwhile, continues to seize Ukrainian territory by the hundreds of square kilometers.
Kaju said Friday that the outlook for the anticipated talks should be kept guardedly pessimistic, as history has shown that Russian regime leader Vladimir Putin's promises and statements can't be trusted. On the contrary, at least to date, Putin has stressed that his goals in Ukraine have not changed.
"It appears that, by offering the possibility of bilateral talks, Putin is exploiting Washington's desire to resolve the conflict diplomatically — in other words, using 'apparent' negotiations to lull Trump's latest outburst of anger toward Russia," he explained. "This in turns means that any upcoming bi- or trilateral talks will most likely be yet another Russian stalling tactic."
According to Kaju, Russia's determination to continue the war is also evident on the battlefield, where neither the number of attacks nor the use of drones and missiles has let up. On the contrary, the number of Geran-type drones employed in attacks against Ukraine rose from 5,500 in June to 6,200 last month.
"Russia's current drone campaign appears aimed at overloading Ukraine's air defense, reflecting its drone-centered war of attrition strategy against Ukraine," the ministry official said.
"While Ukraine has thus far managed to withstand the drone war — destroying 86 percent of the drones — and has itself used drones to disrupt the functioning of Russia's economy and military industry, the mass use of drones has evidently given Russia a certain confidence in its ability to undermine Ukraine's fighting spirit and strengthen its future negotiating position with Ukraine," he continued. "This is particularly relevant in light of possible upcoming talks."
Russia's steadily increasing drone production confirms the growing importance of its drone campaign in achieving strategic objectives.
"This June, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR) estimated that Russia can produce about 170 Geran/Shahed-type drones a day and plans to ramp up its production capacity to 190 drones a day by the end of 2025," Kaju noted.
He said that the Russians have also continually improved the drones they have at their disposal.
"For example, the amount of explosives has been increased, and a new type of Geran drone has already been deployed that uses a jet engine instead of a turboprop, making them even harder for Ukraine's air defenses to counter," Kaju said.
He added that another new tactic gaining ground involves using Geran-type drones to place anti-tank mines along Ukraine's logistical routes.
According to the Defense Ministry official, the use of drones still has its limits, since capturing territory requires infantry to physically occupy it. Unlike in the air, the intensity of Russian ground force attacks has decreased slightly compared with previous weeks, although the Russians continue to carry out nearly 150 attacks a day. By leveraging their superior numbers, the Russians have managed to secure slow but steady territorial gains.
"For example, in July, at the cost of heavy losses, the Russians managed to capture nearly 530 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory — in addition to the 620 square kilometers taken in June," he explained.
"Altogether, roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory is currently under Russian control, including over 90 percent of Luhanks and more than 70 percent of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts," Kaju acknowledged. "Russia is advancing despite everything."
Reports from Ukraine's General Staff on various stretches of the front continue to identify Pokrovsk as the Russians' main axis of attack, accounting for nearly one-third of all recent assaults.
"There have been some reports of Russian presence detected in Pokrovsk, which has been encircled from both flanks, but it's possible these are reconnaissance and sabotage units — that is, yet another so-called flag-raising operation," Kaju said. "It's believed the Ukrainians will continue defending Pokrovsk as long as possible to buy enough time to establish their next defensive positions."
The Estonian defense official noted that the Russians are attempting to use the same kind of two-flank encirclement near Kupiansk and Kostyantynivka as they have at Pokrovsk, but currently there is no risk of encirclement anywhere.
"As for what lies ahead, it can be said that neither side currently — nor in the near future — has enough decisive superiority to radically turn the situation in their favor," he added.
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Editor: Mari Peegel, Aili Vahtla
