These include the Shahed-type drones, made in Russia on license from Iran, and the number of attacks on Ukraine has also risen fourfold on year, to about 4,000 per month.

Speaking at a briefing held at the ministry on Friday, Gert Kaju, head of the ministry's preparedness department, said: "The use of drones and Russia's production capacity are at a growing trend. Whereas in 2024 an average of 1,000 Geran- and Shahed-type drones were deployed per month against Ukraine, then as of now in 2025, the monthly average already reaches 4,000 drones."

In striking Ukraine, Russia focuses on overloading air defenses in specific confined areas and targets within them, so that more attack drones reach their targets.

According to Kaju, it can be forecast that in the longer term, Russia has additional capacity to further increase drone production. "Notably, North Korea is sending tens of thousands of workers to Russia to compensate for a possible labor shortage," he added.

While Russia is significantly boosting its drone capability, this will not happen overnight but over a longer time period, Kaju noted, adding that Ukraine's previous strikes on Russian drone production facilities have had rather short-term effects; Russia has managed to quickly reorganize production after the attacks, he said.

One telling video has emerged from the Russian drone factory in the Alabuga special economic zone, and has been doing the rounds on Ukraine-friendly social media.

Front-line situation stable

Commenting on the situation on the front-line, Kaju said that broadly speaking, things are stable.

"In the past week, Russian aggression against Ukraine has continued at the same pace and in the same format. That is, compared with the previous period, no significant substantive changes can be observed, neither in form nor in quality."

"On the operational-tactical level, combat activity continues according to the previous logic and intensity, with 160 combat engagements per 24 hours still," Kaju added.

Step inside the world's biggest strike drone plant (according to its CEO Timur Shagivaleev), and discover the chilling reality of the world's largest military drone manufacturing factory that employs and brainwashes children.

"Sizewise, this plant is not smaller than aviation… pic.twitter.com/OmMONaZs1J

— Natalka (@NatalkaKyiv) July 21, 2025

However Ukraine may soon be forced to relinquish for the meantime one or two settlements in Donetsk oblast, specifically the long sought-after Pokrovsk, and Kostyantynivka.

"We cannot rule out that in the longer term Ukraine may be forced to relinquish both of these settlements. But I stress that this is a longer-term perspective — the intensity of the fighting will show how the situation there actually develops," Kaju noted.

"However, it is important to mention here that even if these two settlements were to fall, it would not bring about any substantial breakthrough in the war at the operational-tactical level," Kaju stressed.

On other front-line sectors in Ukraine, the situation is also static, which means there are attacks of varying intensity, but they are clearly below the level of activity in the Donetsk region, he added.

Kaju also said that at the political level, Russia's leadership is continuing with its attempts to justify its aggression against Ukraine, including by blaming the West for breaking off peace negotiations, for example in the delivery of long-range weapons to Ukraine.

"At the same time, the Russian propaganda machine continues to stir up war hysteria and create an image of the enemy from the West, including Ukraine. Creating an enemy image has become a goal in itself for Russia, around which its entire society and economy are now functioning," Kaju concluded.

An anticipated large-scale Russian summer offensive has not materialized.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook, Bluesky and X and never miss an update!