"As of November 2023, Russia has managed to occupy around 9,000 square kilometers of Ukraine – in addition to the parts it had previously captured /---/ And if we put the cost in human lives that Russia has paid for this, then it works out statistically that one square kilometer has cost them about 70 men –wounded and dead. Perhaps the human wave attacks they are carrying out are even worse than, for example, the Winter War in Finland, where Russia or at that time the Soviet Union lost around 20 to 30 soldiers dead and wounded for each square kilometer. These are huge losses – astronomical losses," the EDF colonel told reporters at the Ministry of Defense's weekly briefing.

Col. Väli pointed out that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has already lasted 1,241 days, which is around 150 days less than the Soviet Union's war against Nazi Germany. That war is known in Russia as the Great Patriotic War,  with Col. Väli suggesting once the current war surpasses that, it could provide the impetus for a major Russian propaganda campaign.

Russian economy is stagnating

The EDF colonel also spoke about the situation inside Russia, which he said is becoming increasingly difficult, both economically and domestically.

The EDF colonel also spoke about the situation inside Russia, which he said is becoming increasingly difficult, both economically and domestically.

"I would point out that the Russian economy is currently undergoing processes that even pro-regime commentators are saying are starting to bite hard. The state budget is going into deficit, the reserves have been practically eaten away," he explained.

"Basically, the economy has not seen any new real estate projects started for the last two years and small firms are slowly going bankrupt. There is a relatively big panic on the Moscow stock exchange at the moment. Inflation has started to rise despite the Russian central bank's efforts to keep it under control," Col. Väli continued. Some commentators argue that the situation in Russia is beginning to resemble that of the early 1990s, characterized by money losing value and stagnation.

"And there are some interesting trends regarding Russia's internal sense of security. If former ministers are no longer just falling out of windows, and directors of large, privatized companies are being arrested, then it appears that things are bad there. While last year, for example, a naval parade was proudly held in St. Petersburg, this year, for security reasons, all naval parades have been canceled and those who fell in World War Two will be simply commemorated by the laying of wreaths," the colonel said.

Small changes on the front line

Speaking about the latest changes on the front line, Col. Väli said there have been some small breakthroughs by the Russian forces and localized, tactical-level developments.

"There's a lot of pressure on Pokrovsk at the moment, which Russia has been desperately trying to take since October last year. In other words, there's been a pretty long period of them attempting to get it," he said.

According to the colonel, Russian forces are trying to use the same tactics in Pokrovsk as they did previously in Vuhledar (aka Ugledar) and Avdiivka, where they advance from the flanks, thereby seizing key nodes and controlling supplies to Ukrainian units.

"So, with Pokrovsk, for example, if the settlement of Udachnoye to the south-west of Pokrovsk, falls into Russian hands and they control it with fire, they will also be able to control the west-east road to Pokrovsk," he said.

Russian troops are also slowly advancing with large wave attacks in the south of Donetsk Oblast, to the northwest and north of Novosilka as well as near some other smaller settlements.

According to Col. Väli, Russian troops have been trying to increase the tempo across the whole front, but suggestions that a major Russian offensive is imminent are exaggerated.

The EDF colonel also referred to the increasing use of drones in the war. In the early stages after the full-scale invasion began, the main means of killing people on the battlefield were artillery and rocket launchers, while now it is tiny suicide drones being used to chase individual soldiers. "Anyone can watch these videos on YouTube, they are quite horrifying," said Col. Väli.

The prominence of drones in the war also means that both sides have dramatically increased the output of their respective drone industries, with tens of thousands of small FPV drones being manufactured and used.

Col. Väli went on to discuss tactics adopted by the Russian army, whereby attack units ride motorcycles and quad bikes towards Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainian forces have since countered that by using drones to lay down tire-busting spikes and police spikes in the paths of those Russian units.

New Western arms aid to Ukraine raises concerns in Russia

The EDF colonel also commented on recent reports of the imminent delivery of Western arms aid to Ukraine, which he said is causing serious concern in Russia.

"The issue of arms aid to Ukraine has come to the fore so much that it seems U.S. President Donald Trump's cup of suffering is full after all and arms supplies to Ukraine will resume. This has also led to a relative amount of panic among Russian voyeurs (war correspondents – ed.) and propagandists, and there is a debate about what this (Trump's) deadline of 50 days means and how it will play out," said Col. Väli.

"But what is clear is that Patriot systems are now being delivered to Ukraine and that changes the picture slightly once again," he added.

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