In any case, change must come before winter, Pevkur added, noting the White House has started to grasp that something needs to be done to keep the initiative in the conflict.

Speaking to Vikerraadio's "Välistund" Monday, Pevkur said: "I think the moment of truth must come now during these 44–43 days [remaining from the Trump ultimatum], but it cannot go on the same way. A new winter will definitely not be entered on the understanding that no change is coming."

Pevkur acknowledged that while Moscow has expressed a willingness to return to peace talks, nothing seems to have essentially changed in its behavior. He also agreed with the assessment of U.S. expert Andreas Kaju, also appearing on the show, that Russian leader Vladimir Putin may not agree to substantive negotiations until he starts to lose militarily in Ukraine.

Conversely, Putin may be willing to negotiate even if he gets to take military control of all the four eastern Ukrainian oblasts that Russia has claimed as its own, Pevkur added.

So far there has been probing in all directions: Whether military aid to Ukraine works, economic pressure on Russia, and other approaches, but so far nothing has affected Moscow – Russia has been sticking to its very harsh and rigid conditions on Ukraine, conditions which are unacceptable to Kyiv, the minister noted.

The U.S. administration's messages toward Russia have so far been rather moderate and nothing definitively threatening has been stated. Essentially remaining passive and with a slow tightening of the screw has not had much effect, Pevkur continued, even as more lately Washington has shown more willingness to pressure Moscow. "But I don't see that this is forcing Russia to change its behavior," he added.

The collective West providing more military aid to Ukraine may help force Russia militarily to its knees, with Russian soldiers dying and occupied territory being lost. However, the slow advances still being made by Russian forces mean for the meantime Moscow has no reason to consider peace, the defense minister said.

"If the Ukrainians got long-range missiles to use, that would also mean greater support from the U.S. and it would be visually clear that now something is moving [in a positive direction], as much depends on that at the front."

With a large-scale military conflict which has lasted three and a half years, plus the 10-plus years of constant tension going back to 2014 , points to visual signs being more influential than actual breakthroughs on the front in one place or another.

"The visual aspect is very important, and here it is primarily the United States that must reflect," Pevkur stressed.

On the Trump deadline, Pevkur noted that the U.S. president has previously also presented various timelines related to the war in Ukraine. Trump wants to show that America's word carries weight, as recently happened with Iran too, Pevkur noted. However, Russia is not like Iran in that it is advancing militarily in Ukraine.

Kaju recalled that recent history has shown the value of staying calm when observing Trump's actions, and to wait and see what actually happens. His many mood changes may have reduced his credibility, meaning his threats no longer carry as much strength or deterrent effect, Kaju added.

This means that in relation to Ukraine, things may still change several times before the 50-day period is over.

The U.S.'s primary interest is to achieve peace in Ukraine and then look at how to resolve the conflict more permanently, Kaju continued, noting Washington certainly has no interest in an all-out trade war, even with the sanctions and tariffs already issued.

Pevkur stressed that further reducing the price cap on Russian oil would have the strongest impact on the aggressor nation. Sanctions also have an effect, but ways to circumvent them are being sought and often found, whereas an oil price cap would hit Russia immediately, he found.

Kaju also noted that there appears to be no unified view on Russia within the U.S. administration, even as the broader societal attitude is still negative toward Russia. This means public opinion may support a still tougher U.S. policy on Russia, he added.

An anticipated large-scale Russian summer offensive against Ukraine has not materialized.

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