Speaking to "Välisilm;" Arras, an election and political communication expert, noted the Democrats' chances of securing a majority in the House of Representatives at least are high.

President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen into negative territory, making his political future difficult, but much depends on voter turnout, she wen ton.

How likely is it that the Democrats will get a majority in both chambers?

Various prediction models and analysts have put this possibility at rather high. If we are talking about both chambers, that estimate is perhaps a little lower, but when it comes to the House of Representatives, estimates range between 80 and 90 percent that it is achievable. Whether it will also happen in the Senate – there the probability is 50–60 percent, and in some assessments a little higher. But it seems that change is coming.

But couldn't these opinion polls also be wrong in some way? If, for example, the Democrats for some reason do not turn out to vote, the result could still be that the Republicans retain their majority.

Predictions are always just that, predictions, while actual voter behavior will only become clear on election day, as has always been the case. I would say that the main thing to watch out for is which will prevail: money or voter turnout, since the Republicans have considerably more money invested in the campaign – that figure has already exceeded the $1 billion-mark. At the same time, studies indicate that Democrats have much greater motivation to go out there and vote. Dissatisfaction with Trump is running very high, and dissatisfaction, as we know, is a very strong motivating factor for voter mobilization.

We know how Donald Trump reacted when he didn't get the Nobel Peace Prize, or when he doesn't get all the medals and trophies. So how will he take it if he loses this?

He has already been asked that question, and I think he said, with his usual arrogance, that 'I can still veto', meaning that he can continue to veto everything that is decided against him. He certainly won't simply accept defeat.

Another thing worth watching for is whether, and to what extent, Republicans will begin challenging the election results. The first situation of this kind is already unfolding in some states, and there will certainly be more. I believe we may see this kind of deep-state narrative and questioning of the legitimacy of the elections, though of course only if he does not get a result favorable to him.

Are the Democrats prepared for the possible outcome that they might win? Do they have any outstanding leaders in sight, are they ready to start torpedoing everything the Republicans do? We could say that this might lead American life down a path of turmoil, but on the other hand, at least we would see some change.

The Democrats have been part of U.S. politics for just as long as the Republicans, so there is surely some readiness among them, and at the moment there is certainly also a greater desire to do something. At the same time, we cannot really state that there is one clearly established leader today. The Democrats are still in a period of testing the waters to understand who could potentially become their next presidential candidate, and the next elections are in 2028. I believe the results of these midterm elections will also reveal quite a lot about how the balance of power within the Democratic Party will develop.

How can it be that in a country like America, where so many people live, where democracy prevails, where it is basically possible to scramble your way into any position, they cannot find a single outstanding candidate everyone can agree on?

I think the key word is interests. Interests exist both between parties and within parties, and there are surely quite a few people within the Democratic Party who want to be number one themselves. That is why they are testing the waters. It has also been said of Kamala Harris that she could potentially give it another try. But within certain groups in the Democratic Party, there is considerable strong sentiment among those who, after she failed once already, no longer believe in her. On that basis, one would not expect her to run again, although there is talk about her doing so.

So what, ultimately, is it about Donald Trump that has disappointed the voters, including Republican voters, the most? Here we imagine it is the Strait of Hormuz crisis, perhaps we also think about Ukraine, but what is it that has now disappointed Americans?

The biggest concerns are actually domestic ones, but these domestic concerns largely stem from those same issues. Inflation is one of the main concerns. On the subject of inflation, I looked at a recent survey – nearly 75 percent of people say they are highly dissatisfied with how Trump has handled this issue.

The same applies to immigration, where he has made rather abrupt decisions that have affected certain voter groups. In light of this, it is certainly worth watching constituencies with Latin American backgrounds and Latino voters. That is another major source of dissatisfaction, and certainly the war in Iran and everything related to it in the energy sector are under very strong criticism. This may also be one of the reasons why – although there was talk at one point that he might take some more active steps toward Iran again before the elections – I do not believe that will happen. But at the same time, there can always be surprises. Simply looking at the dissatisfaction in this area, it is very unlikely that they would do anything immediately before people go to the polls.

Donald Trump is in his second term, and essentially the president no longer has to worry about anything. He can do whatever he wants as he doesn't have to think about not being elected next time. Is losing even a substantial issue for him?

Looking at how he has operated so far, we cannot be certain that he himself believes this is his final term in office. I say this half-ironically, but given his conviction that he can still accomplish great things, and that he is also pursuing the Nobel Prize, in light of all this... I believe he may still see that he has something to lose, so he certainly does not regard this fight as an easy one.

Even if things now turn out such that the majority in the Senate or the House of Representatives shifts to the Democrats, things will not be easy for them. Even if you have a small majority, in the Senate, for example, they would need at least enough additional votes to be able to end obstruction in the first place. They need at least 60 seats.

If we look at these election results now, it is said that they need only five or six votes to achieve a majority, but those five or six votes or seats will not actually change the bigger picture much for the Democrats. So what is more likely to happen is that Trump will continue operating as he has so far. There will be an even greater deadlock and trench warfare, but no results will actually be achieved, which in turn will probably lead to the American people being even more dissatisfied than they already are today.

How might Donald Trump, if he loses, take it out on the rest of the world? We know he has a habit of doing that.

He has made various attempts regarding Ukraine, as we have seen. That is certainly one area where he can continue along that path. Another is something he has been somewhat threatening to do, where he has become friendlier with various autocratic countries than the democratic world considers reasonable or thinks he should be at all – that is certainly another direction.

Iran also cannot be overlooked in any way, because energy is one of his strategic objectives. If we look, for example, at the decision he signed a year ago launching a major artificial intelligence development program, one of its cornerstones, alongside technological dominance, was also securing energy and its supply.

Where might we now expect the biggest surprises in this spectacle?

Certain states should be watched: Alaska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Michigan and Maine. These are said to be the six main states where the numbers currently indicate that the Democrats are very likely to be able to achieve some kind of breakthrough. These will become decisive, but it is certainly also worth watching voters in large cities and suburbs, who are usually unpredictable in their behavior. Whether and how actively will they turn out at all? They are also among those most strongly affected by inflation, and the same applies to rural areas. There could be surprises in turnout there – specifically, which side sees an increase in turnout.

A Democratic victory in Texas... He will certainly comment on that somehow, he will have something to say to the people of Texas about it.

If that should happen, then that is certainly one state where I would predict that the election results will be called into question. Presumably someone will have had their fingers in the till there.

If there is a defeat, could we also expect something similar to the Capitol riot?

I would like to hope not. So far, I have not really seen analyses from American analysts suggesting that this is considered likely. But Trump has surprised me before as well. At present, I would not really expect it to happen again.

It has also been said that there are fears he will start weakening NATO as well.

NATO is certainly one of the critical issues to watch. If he really takes offense to the depths of his soul, then Ukraine, NATO and liberal democratic principles are also things that will certainly come under attack.

If the election results turn out so that the Republicans win in both chambers, will we, along with the rest of the world, view it as though the elections were rigged?

I do not believe we will, because certain processes in that country are still functioning, and I think going along with the same kind of dubious theory does democracy no good whatsoever.

But we will certainly be seeing a very confident Trump, who will thump his chest and say that everything he has done so far has been right and that he must continue in the same way. However, he still has a problem, because according to the latest surveys, his rating today is minus 20, minus 30, meaning that the net figure is negative. When politicians' approval ratings fall into negative territory, it is generally very difficult to recover from that. Regardless of Trump, the Republicans would still like the next president to come from their own party, so what may happen instead is that a problem eventually emerges within the Republican Party itself.

Background:

The midterms are today, November 3. All 435 members of the House - the lower chamber of Congress - will be elected.  Meanwhile, 35 of 100 seats in the Senate, the upper chamber, will also be up for grabs, prompting speculation of Trump and the Republicans losing their majorities in both the house and the senate.

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