Mikser said that during the European Parliament's summer recess he has no access to any information that is not publicly available, and he draws his knowledge of events from public media. While the street situation has calmed down, the political crisis, according to Mikser, is only gathering momentum.

"And indeed, it is to a large extent political. Ceuta is an enclave of under 60 km² located on the African continent, and its only land border is with Morocco. It has a little over 80,000 inhabitants, so 60,000 migrants crossing the border within 24 hours is undoubtedly very significant and shakes this small enclave strongly. Another issue is that due to its geographical position it is separated from mainland Spain, and the Schengen border‑crossing regime familiar to us does not apply there. In that sense, imagining that some uncontrolled flow of people has now poured into Europe is a literary exaggeration."

Kannik said the situation at Ceuta-Morocco border has been difficult for a long time.

"Morocco has generally held these people back. Now this was likely stopped for some reason. On the other hand, the Spanish government has had a much more liberal attitude toward migration than European governments today, even those led by center‑left parties. For example, Denmark has had quite a forceful stance toward illegal migration."

There is certainly more drama than there should be, because Ceuta does not create a direct route to Italy or Tallinn, or even to mainland Spain, Kannik noted. "There is actually border control there. The possibility of these people spreading across Europe is practically nonexistent; it cannot be compared in any way to 2015."

One background factor in the Ceuta migration event is the relationship between Algeria and Morocco, which is tense due to the Western Sahara issue. "Because of the Western Sahara topic, Morocco and Algeria essentially have a direct hostile relationship, and both sides watch very closely what third countries do toward their so‑called enemy," Kannik said.

On 20 July 2026, Spain's prime minister Pedro Sánchez visited Algeria, and the wave of migrants from Morocco to Ceuta at the end of July may, according to several commentators, have been Morocco's reaction to this. Algeria is also Spain's largest supplier of natural gas.

Sven Mikser said that one must think about the geography of Africa. In the disputed Western Sahara, population density is among the lowest in the world.

"When we move closer to the southern border of the North African countries, there is desert, very sparsely populated territories. People there, for climatic reasons, mostly live a nomadic lifestyle. Their livestock still move in search of water and food. And therefore very clear settlement areas and clear geographical borders are difficult to define," Mikser said.

Italy's forceful reaction to what happened in Ceuta is due to the composition of the Italian government and the upcoming parliamentary elections in Italy.

Kannik said that although Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's party has moved closer to the political center, on migration issues they have been one of the strictest parties in Europe, at least rhetorically.

Sven Mikser added that Meloni's coalition consists of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's party and Matteo Salvini's [far‑right] party. "In an election situation, the rise of the migration topic and strong statements on migration are something Meloni's party can benefit from. That is the main consideration. She also has competition with Salvini on these issues, for example, if she is not forceful enough herself."

Mikser added that the claim that Moroccans swimming around the fence of the Ceuta enclave would somehow threaten Italy's coastline belongs more to the realm of fantasy. "Rather, it is a political statement."

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