The survey, conducted by Norstat on behalf of think tank the Institute of Social Studies, found SDE's rating had increased by 2.1 percentage points in just over a month.

Isamaa rated at 25.9 percent among respondents to this week's Norstat poll, while Center found support from 21.9 percent of respondents. SDE was in third place with 15.2 percent following the recent rally in its rating.

The Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), also in opposition, was next at 13.3 percent, just ahead of the Reform Party at 12.7 percent. The non-parliamentary Parempoolsed polled at 6 percent – above the 5-percent threshold needed to be met to win seats at an election – while Reform's coalition partner, Eesti 200, had a rating of 1.7 percent.

The two coalition parties together are supported by 14.4 percent, compared with 76.3 percent for the four opposition parties combined.

Norstat compiles its surveys on a weekly basis and aggregates the results over the preceding four weeks, quizzing at least 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age over that time, both online and over the phone. The latest aggregated results cover the survey period from June 1 to July 5.

Norstat excludes the results from voters with no party preference when calculating its relative party support, and claims a margin of error in direct proportion to a party's overall rating. For example the margin of error for Isamaa as most supported party stands at +/- 1.62 percentage points compared with +/- 0.48 percentage points for Eesti 200 as least supported. Norstat says its methodology smooths out fluctuations seen in individual surveys, which can result both from larger statistical anomalies, and from short-term events that temporarily influence public opinion.

Coalition sees slight rise in its approval rating

Once a month, Norstat also polls respondents about their views on the performance of the coalition government and of the prime minister.

According to the latest poll, 29 percent believe the Reform-Eesti 200 government is doing a "very good" or "quite good" job, up from 27 percent a month ago. Conversely, 67 percent found it is performing "quite poorly" or "very poorly," a result unchanged on the previous month.

Prime Minister Kristen Michal's (Reform) rating saw 21 percent stating he is performing well this month, unchanged from last month's results. Meanwhile 63 percent of respondents to the latest survey disapproved of his performance, again representing no change on the previous month's poll.

The next direct election in Estonia is to the Riigikogu in March 2027.

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