The Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) and research firm Norstat Eesti AS survey voters' party preferences every week. According to the latest results, 26 percent of eligible voters support Isamaa, 22 percent support the Center Party and 14.5 percent support the Social Democratic Party.

Support for Isamaa, which remains in first place, has fallen by 1.3 percentage points over the past three weeks, while support for the second-place Center Party has increased by 1.3 percentage points over the same period. Based on the latest results, the gap between the two parties stands at 4 percentage points. The Social Democratic Party ranks third, with its support rising by 1.4 percentage points over the past four weeks.

The top three are followed by EKRE (13.4 percent), the Reform Party (12.7 percent), Parempoolsed (6.7 percent) and Eesti 200 (1.5 percent).

The governing coalition parties (Reform and Eesti 200) are supported by a combined 14.2 percent of respondents, while the Riigikogu opposition parties have the backing of 75.9 percent.

The latest aggregate results reflect the survey period from May 25 to June 20. A total of 4,000 voting-age citizens of the Republic of Estonia were surveyed.

In presenting the results, Norstat Eesti AS focuses on the combined results from the most recent four weeks. This produces a sample of at least 4,000 respondents. Voters who did not express a party preference are excluded when calculating each party's relative level of support.

The maximum margin of error depends on the size of the largest group. In this survey, Isamaa supporters made up the largest group, resulting in a margin of error of ±1.62 percentage points. The margin of error is smaller for the other parties — for example, ±0.45 percentage points for Eesti 200. Calculating party support in this way smooths out fluctuations that can occur in individual surveys due to both larger statistical variation and short-term events.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!