If the next seven-year European Union budget (2028–2034), known as the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), is adopted even roughly in the form proposed by the European Commission, Estonia would receive several billion euros more than it contributes. The ratio between the support received and Estonia's contributions to the EU budget may remain similar to the current MFF, but since both figures are expected to grow, the total amount of support coming from Europe could be even greater than before.

Due to differing rules for how various parts of the budget can be used, it's difficult to calculate exactly how much Estonia would receive from the next MFF. However, according to Meelis Meigas, head of the EU policy department at the Ministry of Finance, under the first pillar of the budget — where fixed amounts are allocated to each member state — Estonia's share would be €6.5 billion.

The first pillar of the EU's long-term budget totals €793 billion and includes funding for cohesion policy, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), fisheries and internal security. While in previous frameworks individual amounts were designated for each policy area, this time each country is given a single lump sum. Within that amount, countries can decide for themselves how to distribute the funds, based on agreed-upon reforms and investments, giving member states more flexibility.

Meigas explained that to make use of the €6.5 billion under the first pillar, Estonia will develop a national plan in cooperation with the European Commission. This plan will set target levels for how the funds are used, with areas such as climate and the environment, education and social issues likely to be prioritized. Still, within this total, Estonia has been earmarked a specific €810 million package for internal security — border management, migration and strengthening visa systems. This is ten times more than what Estonia currently receives from the EU in this area.

Additionally, €1.6 billion is earmarked for agricultural subsidies. While this is less than the roughly €2 billion Estonia receives under the current MFF, the difference could be offset by using part of the flexible funding that the government will be able to allocate freely. Estonia wants to keep cohesion and agricultural policy support at the same level as before.

On top of the first pillar, the second pillar of the MFF would add €589 billion under the proposal. This includes the European Competitiveness Fund, the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF), the Horizon Europe research and innovation program, the Erasmus+ mobility program, the AgoraEU culture and civil society program, the civil protection mechanism and several smaller initiatives.

However, funding under the second pillar is awarded through competition among member states. Those who are more successful at justifying their needs and preparing strong applications will receive more. Estonia, for example, could apply under the CEF for support to complete the Rail Baltica project and to build new energy connections.

"The scale of funding from centrally managed funds cannot yet be precisely estimated, as it depends on the success of projects submitted by Estonian businesses, universities and other applicants. However, considering Estonia's past success in securing such funding, the total amount received — together with the sum allocated to the state under the first pillar — could reach around €10 billion. Estonia's contribution to the MFF would be €4.8 billion," Meigas said.

The new budget proposal also includes two additional pillars, though these don't directly affect member states. The third pillar would fund the EU's external actions, with a proposed €215 billion. This would include at least €100 billion in support for Ukraine, though that figure is considered outside the MFF accounting.

The fourth pillar, totaling €118 billion, would fund EU administration covering institutions such as the European Parliament, the European Commission, the European Court of Justice, the Court of Auditors and others.

A separate but significant issue is how the nearly €2 trillion EU budget would be financed. The European Commission has proposed several new revenue sources. Currently, about 70 percent of the EU budget comes from member states based on their gross national income (GNI), but a substantial portion is expected to come from what are known as the EU's "own resources," meaning taxes collected by member states and transferred directly to the EU.

Until now, the EU budget has included customs duties, a portion of value-added tax (VAT) and a levy on non-recycled plastic waste. The Commission now proposes adding the following to the MFF's revenue sources: 30 percent of income from the Emissions Trading System (ETS), 75 percent of revenue from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a tax on uncollected waste electrical and electronic equipment, 15 percent of the minimum tobacco excise duty and a budget contribution from companies with annual turnover exceeding €100 million.

The proposal also calls for increasing the collection rate for non-recycled plastic packaging waste and removing some current limits and restrictions on revenue sources.

During the current MFF period (2021–2027), Estonia is set to receive approximately €6.8 billion from the EU budget, while contributing about €2.6 billion, meaning it receives around €2.60 for every euro it pays in.

Discussions between member states and the European Parliament on the new MFF proposal are set to begin at the end of this year. An agreement is expected by the summer of 2027, roughly six months before the new budget takes effect, to allow time for the adoption of implementing regulations.

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