Ratings: Isamaa doubles its lead over Center Party
Opposition party Isamaa has more than doubled its lead over the Center Party to 6.6 percentage points, according to a recent poll.
The increase from 3.1 points to 6.6 points reflects both rising support for Isamaa and declining support for Center, according to the weekly survey by pollster Norstat.
A total of 27.3 percent of respondents backed Isamaa, compared with 20.7 percent for Center. Two other opposition parties followed: the Social Democrats (SDE) at 13.9 percent and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) at 13.7 percent.
The first coalition party, Reform, polled at 12.3 percent, followed by the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed at 6.6 percent. The other coalition party, Eesti 200, continued to poll poorly at 1.8 percent.
Over the past four weeks, Isamaa's support has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Center's has fallen by 1.7 points.
Norstat said the decline in Center's support was primarily driven by a drop among non-Estonian voters. This followed an earlier surge in support among that demographic, referring largely to Estonian citizens whose first language is Russian.
Among Estonian-speaking voters, support for Center has remained largely unchanged in recent months at around 11-12 percent. By comparison, before entering government with Reform in January 2021, Center's support among Estonian-speaking voters ranged from 15 percent to 20 percent. That coalition remained in office until summer 2022. Center currently governs Tallinn with Isamaa.
The two coalition parties command a combined 14.1 percent support, while the four opposition parties together account for 75.6 percent.
Norstat conducts weekly polls and aggregates results over the previous four weeks. The latest survey covers May 11 to June 5 and included 4,000 voting-age Estonian citizens.
Norstat conducts the polling on behalf of the conservative think tank Institute of Social Studies. Respondents who expressed no party preference were excluded from the results.
According to Norstat, the margin of error varies with a party's level of support. Isamaa's rating carries a margin of error of plus or minus 1.64 percentage points, compared with plus or minus 0.49 points for Eesti 200.
The next direct elections in Estonia are to the Riigikogu in March 2027.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mirjam Mäekivi
