Experts: Russia's fuel crisis keeps getting worse
Ukrainian drones are systematically attacking Russian oil refineries, creating a shortage of motor fuel across Russia. Ordinary car owners are bearing the brunt of the crisis, but ultimately the entire economy is suffering.
Ukraine attacked an oil refinery on the outskirts of Moscow overnight for the second time. It was the largest aerial attack on Russian territory since the start of the war. The Kapotnya refinery supplies Moscow with motor fuel. According to Ivan Preobrazhensky, a Moscow-born political analyst living abroad, the attack is making residents of the Russian capital increasingly uneasy.
"If Moscow experiences a real fuel shortage, considering that Kapotnya supplied the city — not entirely, but to a very large extent — then Moscow will certainly grind to a halt," Preobrazhensky said.
Due to the systematic destruction caused by Ukrainian drone strikes, Crimea has run out of motor fuel entirely, while shortages have spread to other parts of Russia as well.
"About 80 of the larger oil refineries have been hit by drone attacks and some of them more than once. July and August will probably be the most difficult months for Russia because fuel consumption is around 10 percent higher then, while supply is currently estimated to be 10 percent lower. All things considered, the market shortage could reach as much as 20 percent," said Peeter Luikmel, head of the Foreign Economy Subdivision at the Bank of Estonia.
According to economic expert Raivo Vare, Russia's fuel crisis is continuing to worsen.
"At some point it will become truly widespread. Imagine the Moscow metropolitan area, where people are limited to buying 20 liters per car, while at the same time they want to drive to their dachas, as is customary in the summer, or head south for vacation," Vare said.
In addition to restricting fuel sales at gas stations, Russia is trying to ease the situation by offering lower-quality fuel.
"In the case of gasoline, fuel meeting Euro 3 standards, which contains higher levels of pollutants, is now being sold as if it met Euro 5 standards," Luikmel said.
However, this damages the engines of newer cars. The situation is similar with aviation fuel. The shortage is affecting the entire Russian economy, including sectors such as the chemical industry and agriculture.
"So this is not just a transportation or fuel problem, nor merely an issue of higher prices, which are ultimately passed on to the cost of products. The military is being supplied first and there is no longer enough fuel for tractors and agricultural work. That means smaller harvests and, eventually, problems with food supplies as well," Vare said.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski, Johanna Alvin
