"I think this attack already has a strategic dimension, and we can see from Russia's actions that they are disturbed by the fact that the strategic initiative is starting to slip away," Saks said Friday, commenting on Ukraine's recent strikes on Moscow and the oil refinery that supplies the Russian capital.

Saks noted that Ukraine's strike capability has grown over the past six months while the Russian army has made little progress on the front line. At the same time, international pressure on Russia has increased, both from Europe and, in the past week, from the United States.

He said the situation has changed drastically for Russia since early May, when it struggled to organize the May 9 parade, and conditions have steadily worsened since then.

"The strategic‑level shift has not fully happened yet. In the big picture, the initiative may still be in Russia's hands, but it is up in the air as to who will manage to seize it," Saks said.

He added that Ukraine is not deliberately targeting Russian civilians, which gives it moral superiority and makes it easier for Western countries to support it. It also boosts the morale of Ukrainian soldiers on the front line when they know they hold the moral high ground.

Logistical problems are especially sensitive for Russia

Saks also highlighted how Ukraine's recent strikes have begun to change public attitudes in Russia, which in turn may influence the actions of the country's leadership. Since major attacks began in April on oil facilities in southern Russia and along the Black Sea, social media posts by Russians have taken on a noticeably different tone.

"This puts the Russian leadership under a completely different kind of pressure. We should remember that at the start of the war, the Russian president publicly declared that the war would not affect anyone in Russia," Saks said.

"I don't think this will all happen quickly, but it will certainly have a major impact. The State Duma elections are coming in the fall. They are not normal elections in that sense, but they still present significant challenges for the Russian government," he added.

Saks stressed the seriousness of the logistical problems caused by the fuel shortage.

"Russia's territory is enormous. And every schoolchild in Russia knows the narrative the government spreads in history textbooks: that Russia's collapses have always happened when logistics fail. For example, 1917 is cited — the collapse of rail transport was one reason drastic events unfolded in Russia," he said. "So in that sense, this has a very significant impact on the Russian government, but we will see that impact only after some time."

Moscow's situation will worsen further

Saks predicted that the effects of Ukraine's airstrikes on oil infrastructure in the Moscow region will grow and persist for a long time.

"It will definitely get worse, but how far it goes, we don't know, because the Russian government and ministries are making enormous efforts to restore fuel supplies to gas stations," he said.

"And around Moscow especially, very serious setbacks are expected soon, because restrictions on motor fuels — gasoline and diesel — were already in place before the latest major strikes on the Moscow oil refinery," he explained.

Saks also referred to media reports that the refinery hit near Moscow supplied about 40 percent of the fuel consumed in the region.

"But what Ukraine has now done is attack the pipelines that brought petroleum products from other refineries to the Moscow area. So we can expect that fuel security in the region will drop significantly for some time. Cars and trains cannot compensate for the loss of pipelines and the refinery, because that refinery likely will not resume operations for years," Saks said.

Russian activity on the front has not decreased

Saks acknowledged that Ukrainian fighters have had an easier time on the front line in one sense, because Russia has not been able to launch large‑scale offensives since mid‑December and has been forced to attack mainly with small infantry units attempting infiltration. But Russian drone strikes and glide‑bomb attacks remain extremely damaging.

"These are the biggest problems, and they have not been resolved," he said.

"And we still have to say that despite very effective strikes on Russian logistics, I do not yet see a decrease in Russian army activity on the front lines, and the initiative remains with the Russian army," Saks noted.

"There has been no direct breakthrough in the war for either side, but in the visual and psychological picture, Ukraine has achieved significant success. Unfortunately, one short‑term event does not quickly change the situation. Consistent work on many different fronts is needed, and then the balance will begin to tilt more firmly toward Ukraine," he said.

The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is continuing.

The map below is the latest update on the situation in Ukraine – 19 June 2026.
#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/DP7S9X2mqF

— Ministry of Defence (@DefenceHQ) June 19, 2026

Saks also pointed to increased Western support for Ukraine, reflected in this week's Ramstein‑format meeting in Brussels, where defense ministers from Ukraine's supporting countries — including the United Kingdom, Germany and others — made major decisions with significant impact.

"Often the problem has been that we hear strong declarations of support for Ukraine, such as the F‑16s, which are very important, but there are serious problems with fulfilling those promises. But it seems that European countries' willingness to support Ukraine has grown significantly. And I would emphasize that Ukraine's military successes in recent months have increased that motivation, making it easier to make decisions in Ukraine's favor," Saks said.

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