Col. Ants Kiviselg, director of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Military Intelligence Center, said assessing the risk of aggression requires weighing Russia's military posture, political intent and its capacity to carry out an attack in an international context.

He noted that Russia largely hasn't achieved its strategic objectives in Ukraine, and even where gains have been made, they have come significantly later than originally planned.

Kiviselg was responding in part to recent remarks by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said Russia may be disrupting civilian internet access as part of broader mobilization efforts that could also be used to attack the Baltic states.

According to Kiviselg, mobilization is needed for Russia to maintain the current pace of its attacks in Ukraine.

"With recruits from criminal regions and contract troops, it's no longer possible to maintain this tempo for long," he said, adding that Russian forces appear to have reached a peak.

Mobilization wouldn't be against NATO

The colonel stressed that no signs point to any mobilized forces being used against the Baltics or NATO in general.

"Even if mobilization is carried out in Russia, there are no indicators these mobilized units would be directed against NATO states," Kiviselg said, adding that the EDF, including its Military Intelligence Center, works daily to ward off a potential war.

While no signs point to an imminent attack, however, Kiviselg warned that Russia's leadership is unpredictable and often acts irrationally.

"Rationally speaking, it would make absolutely no sense for the Russian Federation to open a new front elsewhere," he said. "But we have seen that the Russian Federation is not always rational in its decisions and may make strategic miscalculations."

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