Last week, the number of combat engagements in Ukraine decreased noticeably, while Ukrainian deep strikes reached further into Russian territory. Russia's strong desire for a ceasefire around Victory Day on May 9 indicates that the country has failed to achieve its strategic objectives.

This can rather be seen as recognition of Ukraine's increased ability to threaten Russia's strategic objects, Kiviselg said.

According to Zelenskyy, Russia has reached a situation where its largest military parade depends on Ukraine. Kiviselg added that this is proven by the capability to attack targets on Russian territory as far as the Urals, referring to a target hit nearly 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine.

Over a 24-hour period, 150 combat contacts took place in the war, which is slightly fewer than last week. At the same time, the number of fatalities has remained similar.

As a result of a Ukrainian attack, operations have halted at the second-largest oil refinery in Russia in Kirishi. Ukrainians also struck an explosives factory in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and a plant producing drone navigation systems in Cheboksary in the Chuvash Republic.

In the future, the Russian Federation is likely to concentrate its attacks more on the Sloviansk and Kostiantynivka directions, Kiviselg said. The war of attrition has also moved from the front line to the rear.

Above all, there is an attempt to strike logistical support and destroy it before it reaches the front. Statistics show this is producing results, as Russian attacks have remained at a high level while territory captured has decreased.

Although Russia increased the number of drones and missiles used for long-range precision strikes, Ukrainian air defense has coped well.

Kiviselg highlighted a positive trend where Ukrainian air defense destroyed about 40 percent of Russia's long-range attack drones using interceptor drones during April. This technology will likely see wider use in the future and continue to improve.

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