Experts: Filling U.S.-created defense gaps would be difficult for Europe
The United States has signaled it may leave European allies without part of its strategic capabilities, hoping Europeans will begin planning how to fill the gaps themselves. According to experts, however, Europe's plans are being pushed too far into the future.
Member of the Estonian Parliament Eerik-Niiles Kross (Reform Party) explained that, broadly speaking, NATO's defense plans assume that in wartime the U.S. would provide a large share of deep-strike capabilities, satellite imagery, targeting, aircraft, and aerial refueling. Without these, Europe would not be able to execute its air war plans.
"If the Americans plan to contribute only half as many aircraft, it's hard to imagine that Europe could immediately fight the kind of air war envisioned in the plans," Kross said.
The administration of President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to take such steps. According to Kross, one cannot rely on the assumption that they ultimately will not follow through.
"The Americans have now stopped talking and decided to act, putting Europe in a forced position: either you start swimming or you drown," Kross said.
Former Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces Martin Herem said that the emerging capability gaps are likely known to NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe as well as to planners.
However, when timelines are set, they are always pushed far into the future.
"On the one hand, people applaud when intelligence chiefs or generals say that after the war in Ukraine, it could take six months or three years for Russia to be ready to test us again. On the other hand, plans say that if peace in Ukraine came next year, we should be ready by 2030. But in our plans, the actual timelines extend well beyond 2030," Herem said.
Member of the European Parliament and retired general Riho Terras said Europe has not accounted for the withdrawal of strategic capabilities.
"If that were to happen, it would be a significant blow to Europe's defense capability. Particularly notable, of course, is that the deployment of Tomahawk missiles in Germany has been canceled. That was intended specifically to balance Russia's medium- and long-range missile capabilities," Terras said.
According to Terras, the European Union should invest in capabilities that individual countries cannot develop on their own — such as strategic intelligence, targeting capabilities, and satellites.
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Editor: Valner Väino, Argo Ideon
Source: ERR "Aktuaalne kaamera"
