The Wall Street Journal wrote recently that Russia appears to be preparing for military escalation in Europe, targeting one of the Baltic states, Sweden or Danish islands. Several European security officials were quoted as suggesting this could be possible.

According to Estonian experts, however, there is no basis for the anonymous assessment and there are no signs of military changes.

"At the moment, there is no indication that Russia is regrouping its forces militarily in any way, for example, toward our Baltic states. If Russia were to open some kind of new direction, it would immediately leave itself vulnerable in the direction of Ukraine. Likewise, we know that Russia is still not ready today to fight NATO," said Marek Kohv, researcher at the International Centre for Defense and Security.

Former Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces Gen. Martin Herem also said that Russia does not have the resources to expand beyond Ukraine. At the same time, he stressed that the threat to the Baltic states could quickly grow again if a pause were to emerge in the war in Ukraine.

"The global situation is not good. Russia would still not need very much preparation to attack us. And our own preparation together with NATO as a whole is also, in my opinion, not very convincing," Herem said.

Hybrid attacks against Europe are also continuing. Communications and security expert Ilmar Raag has observed that Kremlin messaging directed at the Baltic states has become increasingly aggressive recently.

"Official Russian figures, whether from the Foreign Ministry, the presidential administration or the State Duma, have begun attacking the Baltic states more frequently and this criticism has become more specific. On the one hand, there is readiness to take the Baltic states to court. On the other hand, there is talk that because the Baltic states have supposedly given their territory to Ukrainian drones, countermeasures will follow," Raag said.

In the Kremlin's view, the three Baltic states are not distinguished from one another.

"The country that shows the most signs of political instability or weakness is attacked the most. In other words, when it became apparent that there was a government crisis in Latvia, criticism directed at Latvia immediately intensified. Above all, the Russian logic is that when a country falls into crisis, it really does change its previous positions, for example, regarding support for Ukraine," Raag said.

Herem added that hybrid attacks will likely become even more frequent next year.

"Sabotaging vital services is the easiest thing they can do. Information operations — these may have no effect, but in Western society they can spread very quickly and once again create distrust," Herem said.

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service's threat assessment has not changed.

"Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year. To preserve this situation in the more distant future as well, we must continue deterring Russia and investing in our defense capabilities," the agency's spokesperson told ERR on Wednesday.

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