According to an annual public opinion survey commissioned by the Ministry of Defense, 81 percent of Estonia's residents believe the country should offer armed resistance in any circumstances if it were attacked by another state.

Some 62 percent of residents said they would be willing to take part in defense activities according to their abilities and skills, a figure unchanged from the previous two years. Willingness is higher among ethnic Estonians (69 percent) than among residents of other nationalities (48 percent).

Half of Estonia's residents believe the country could defend itself until allied assistance arrives, while more than half feel the state has done a good job of developing national defense in recent years.

The public also views the activities and exercises of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) positively. For example, 81 percent support reserve forces' call-up exercises, while 79 percent support allied air exercises in Estonian airspace.

Support for expanding military training areas has increased by 3 percentage points to 64 percent.

More than two-thirds of Estonia's residents believe defense spending should either be increased or maintained at its current level. Thirty-five percent of respondents support further increases in defense spending, while an equal share believes the current level should be maintained.

Seventeen percent support reducing defense spending, unchanged from last year when defense expenditure stood at just over 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Compared with a year earlier, the share of people who believe defense spending should be maintained at its current level has increased by 12 percentage points.

People less optimistic about security situation improving

The survey also shows that, for the fourth consecutive year, the share of residents who believe Estonia's living environment will be less secure in 10 years than it is today has increased. At the same time, the proportion of those who believe conditions will remain unchanged is declining. Those expecting a less secure future now make up a larger share of the population (33 percent) than those who expect conditions to remain the same (29 percent).

The threats considered most likely to affect Estonia in the coming years are the spread of disinformation, which 86 percent rate as very or fairly likely, and cyberattacks targeting state systems, institutions, businesses or residents, cited by 84 percent.

The least likely threats, according to respondents, are a large-scale military attack against Estonia (49 percent), the spread of epidemics and major industrial accidents or environmental pollution.

Residents overwhelmingly view the widespread dissemination of disinformation and false news, cyberattacks, Russia's attempts to restore its influence over neighboring countries and Russia's war in Ukraine as threats to global peace and security. Between 55 percent and 58 percent of respondents regard these as definite threats.

Compared with 2025, fewer respondents see a definite threat in Russia's efforts to restore its influence (down from 62 percent to 56 percent) and in Russia's war in Ukraine (56 percent), which ranked as the top concerns a year earlier. At the same time, the use of nuclear weapons is viewed as a greater threat than last year, with the share of respondents identifying it as a definite threat rising from 45 percent to 50 percent.

Some 71 percent of Estonia's residents said they feel personally safe given the overall security situation in Estonia and globally, including 13 percent who said they feel very safe.

Women, people aged 20–29, residents of other nationalities and residents of Tallinn are more likely to report feeling unsafe.

Baltic cooperation increasingly valued next to NATO

In recent years, fewer residents have believed that NATO membership alone can guarantee Estonia's security, while support has grown for the view that security also depends on cooperation among the Baltic states and within the European Union, as well as voluntary individual contributions to national defense.

More than half of Estonia's residents believe NATO membership provides the strongest guarantee of the country's security. One-third say the permanent presence of allied military units in Estonia also contributes to security. Nearly as many view defense cooperation among the Baltic states as the most important security guarantee. While only 13 percent held this view in 2022, support has risen to 30 percent this year.

The previously growing belief that cooperation and strong relations with the United States are important has declined slightly.

Support for Estonia's membership in NATO remains high, with 82 percent of residents in favor, a figure that has not changed significantly over the past year.

Some 71 percent of residents believe NATO membership helps prevent a potential military conflict involving Estonia, including 23 percent who are certain of this. Twenty-two percent do not believe it does, while 7 percent were unable to give an opinion.

Among those who are certain NATO membership would not protect Estonia from war, half nevertheless believe NATO would provide direct military assistance if a conflict were to break out. A quarter think assistance would be limited to political and diplomatic support, while only 13 percent do not believe NATO would provide any assistance at all.

Fifty-six percent of residents believe NATO has done either enough or rather enough under the current security circumstances to ensure Estonia's security. Since 2023, the share holding this view has declined each year, falling from 69 percent to 56 percent. At the same time, the proportion of residents who consider NATO's efforts insufficient, as well as those unable to assess them, has gradually increased.

The presence of NATO allied forces in Estonia is viewed very positively, with 82 percent of residents supporting it and only 12 percent opposed.

Meanwhile, 52 percent of residents support the participation of Estonia's defense forces in international operations. Support for such participation has gradually declined each year since 2023.

Some 67 percent of Estonia's residents support continuing assistance to Ukraine in its war against Russia, unchanged from last year. Continued support is backed by 80 percent of ethnic Estonians and 41 percent of residents of other nationalities.

The Public Opinion on National Defense survey was conducted by Kantar Emor on behalf of the Ministry of Defense. The survey, carried out in March 2026, included 1,372 Estonian residents aged 15 to 74 and was conducted online and by telephone.

The survey is the latest in a series of public opinion studies conducted annually between 2000 and 2025.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!