Reform Party chairman Kristen Michal referred in a recent speech at the party congress to a "conservative octopus" threatening to wrap Estonia in its tentacles, referring to a possible coalition of Isamaa, the Center Party and EKRE that could come to power after the next elections.

Kristina Kallas, chair of the other liberal coalition partner, Eesti 200, also warned the public about populist and conservative forces coming to power which, she said, want to reverse and halt Estonia's development.

The liberal camp is therefore actively constructing a conservative "axis of evil." They are already trying to conjure up an image of an Isamaa-led Estonia as a reincarnation of Viktor Orbán's Hungary on the shores of the Baltic Sea: democracy would fade, minorities would be persecuted, the country's gaze would turn eastward instead of westward and so on. Why are liberal forces doing this? How much truth is there to it and do they really believe it?

First, the motives.

It would be extremely inconvenient for Reform and Eesti 200 if next year's elections were centered on the economy, tax policy and the current government's performance. After all, they have no economic success stories to show from the past four years. Nor do they want to engage in tax policy debates because doing so would place their previous decisions in a vulnerable position.

In addition, neither party has been able to resolve for itself the question of how to effectively fill the state coffers under the current tax system, which they themselves regard as a major success story. Yet they do not want to hold an open tax debate free of taboos — at least Reform does not. So, because the economy and taxes are effectively off the table, they are trying at all costs to preemptively shift the election debate toward a conflict over values.

Potential liberal voters are being presented with a picture of an almost apocalyptic struggle, in which on one side stand liberal and progressive forces that support democratic freedoms, the rule of law, do not harass minorities, believe in the future, are technologically progressive and, most importantly, are pro-Western and committed to preserving Estonia's current alliances.

Opposing them is the EKREIKE conservative "axis of evil," which represents the exact opposite: its model is Orbán's illiberal democracy in Hungary, the public sphere would be subordinated to conservative values, the rights of women and minorities would come under attack, oligarchy would be allowed to dominate, Estonia's development would be turned back and all kinds of new technologies — whether green technologies or artificial intelligence — would be viewed with suspicion.

Naturally, this camp would also seek to distance Estonia from its traditional European allies, curry favor as much as possible with Donald Trump or even "go scratching at the Kremlin's door," to paraphrase Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200 — ed.).

There are two interesting rhetorical devices in the construction of this conservative "axis of evil," which also indirectly allow us to assess how truthful such warnings really are.

First, all three parties are lumped together under the assumption that Isamaa, the Center Party and EKRE are ideologically one and the same group. Anyone who has followed Estonian politics even a little knows that this is not actually the case. Isamaa's moderate conservatism, the Center Party's strange blend of liberalism and conservatism with the characteristics of an ethnic party and EKRE's right-wing populism do not form a coherent whole. The previous EKREIKE government already demonstrated that tensions were built into such a coalition from the outset. And there is currently no guarantee they would even want to govern together again, since the previous experience left much to be desired.

Second, liberals smoothly transfer everything associated with EKRE onto Isamaa and the Center Party as well, and this is in fact the core of the fearmongering tactic being described. Yes, EKRE openly admired Orbán's Hungary, EKRE wants to restrict the rights of several minority groups and dismantle ERR, EKRE would abandon the European Union in favor of Trump's America and so on.

Neither Isamaa nor the Center Party has proclaimed anything of the sort so far. Given the history of both parties and the fairly divergent expectations of their current voter bases on these issues, I honestly do not consider a complete EKRE-ification or Orbánization of Isamaa and the Center Party to be possible. For that to happen, something very significant would have to change in the broader background and internal dynamics of Estonian politics.

So those who sincerely believe that Urmas Reinsalu could become Estonia's own Viktor Orbán and that Isamaa could become a new Fidesz should indeed take liberals' warnings about the conservative "octopus" with full seriousness. Those who doubt it may simply view it as one political camp's desperate attempt to salvage whatever can still be salvaged from an impending electoral defeat.

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